03/07/00

LC000307

VAL>> ON LIFE AND TIMES TONIGHT --

WARREN>> YOU NEEDED TO BE SOME KIND OF POLICY WAND TO FIGURE OUT TODAY'S SUPER COMPLICATED SUPER TUESDAY BALLOT.

PHILIP BRUCE>> WHAT ABOUT ALL THOSE PROPOSITIONS ON TODAY'S BALLOT? HERE IN GLENDALE AT THE KEPPEL ELEMENTARY POLLING PLACE, WE FOUND PLENTY OF VOTERS WHO SAID "ENOUGH ALREADY".

HAROLD GRIMES>> I THINK THERE'S REALLY TOO MANY PROPOSITIONS ON HERE. I MEAN, YOU GO TO VOTE AND HALF THE PEOPLE DON'T UNDERSTAND THEM, HOW TO VOTE FOR THEM. SOME OF THEM YOU VOTE YES, YEAH, YOU WANT IT. AND IF YOU DON'T WANT SOME OF THEM, YOU KNOW. I DON'T KNOW.

VAL>> AND JOHN MCCAIN IS IN LOS ANGELES TONIGHT NERVOUSLY AWAITING RETURNS, BUT TRYING NOT TO SHOW IT.

JOHN MCCAIN>> YOU'RE A HOT FIRST LADY, CINDY MCCAIN.

WARREN>> THESE STORIES COMING UP NEXT ON LIFE AND TIMES TONIGHT FOR ELECTION DAY, TUESDAY, MARCH 7, 2000.

LIFE AND TIMES TONIGHT IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE FOLLOWING CORPORATIONS AND FOUNDATIONS:

THE JAMES IRVINE FOUNDATION
WHICH IS DEDICATED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INFORMED CALIFORNIA CITIZENRY.

GTE
A COMPANY COMMITTED TO TELECOMMUNICATIONS EXCELLENCE AND AN OPEN DIALOGUE AMONG ALL PEOPLE.

AND THE L.K. WHITTIER FOUNDATION
DEDICATED TO IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF LIFE BY SUPPORTING INNOVATIVE ENDEAVORS IN THE FIELDS OF MEDICINE, HEALTH, SCIENCE AND EDUCATION.

WARREN>> GOOD EVENING, I'M WARREN OLNEY.

VAL>> AND I'M VAL ZAVALA.

WARREN>> OUR TOP STORY TONIGHT, OF COURSE, SUPER TUESDAY, CALIFORNIA STYLE. THE GOLDEN STATE'S EARLIEST PRIMARY ELECTION OF THE CENTURY IS DRAWING A NEAR RECORD TURNOUT WITH VOTERS CASTING THEIR BALLOTS IN A DAUNTING NUMBER OF RACES.

VAL>> THERE ARE TWO DOZEN STATEWIDE INITIATIVES, LEGISLATIVE AND CONGRESSIONAL SEATS, LOCAL JUDGES AND, IN LA COUNTY, THE DISTRICT ATTORNEY SEAT IS UP FOR GRABS. BUT AS PHILIP BRUCE LEARNED, IT WAS THE TOP OF THE TICKET THAT WAS THE BIG DRAW.

PHILIP>> AT SCORES OF POLLING PLACES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE TURNOUT TOLD THE STORY. LOTS OF PEOPLE CASTING THEIR BALLOTS AND MOST OF THEM THERE BECAUSE OF THE MAIN ATTRACTION, THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT.

SHERRY BEBITCH JEFFE>> THE PREVAILING DYNAMIC OF THIS ELECTION DAY IS THE GRIPPING SOAP OPERA THAT THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN CONTINUES TO BE.

PHILIP>> SHERRY BEBITCH JEFFE, A VETERAN OBSERVER OF CALIFORNIA POLITICS, SAYS IT'S PRETTY CLEAR THAT VOTERS HAVE GOTTEN CAUGHT UP IN THE EXCITEMENT AS GEORGE W. BUSH AND JOHN MCCAIN HAVE TURNED THIS STATE INTO A KEY BATTLEGROUND.

SHERRY BEBITCH JEFFE>> WITHOUT THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE, I'M NOT AT ALL SURE THAT WE'D SEE THREE PEOPLE AT THE POLLS. I MEAN, THERE ARE THOSE WHO WILL ARGUE THAT PROP 22, THE LIMIT ON MARRIAGES INITIATIVE, WOULD DRIVE TURNOUT. I DON'T SEE IT. YES, PERHAPS AT THE EXTREMES, THE FAR RIGHT AND THE FAR LEFT, BUT THAT'S NOT ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR A SURGE AS THE SURGE WE ARE SEEING.

PHILIP>> YOU'LL GET NO ARGUMENT FROM GOVERNOR GRAY DAVIS, WHO CAME HOME THIS AFTERNOON TO CAST HIS BALLOT AT HIS OLD LOS ANGELES VOTING PRECINCT.

GRAY DAVIS>> WELL, I THINK THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE HAS CLEARLY BEEN THE BIG DRAW THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE'RE VERY OPTIMISTIC THAT TWO PARK AND WATER BOND ISSUES THAT I FOUGHT FOR AND PUT ON THE BALLOT, 12 AND 13, WILL PASS. I BELIEVE PROPOSITION 26, WHICH WILL ALLOW SCHOOLS TO HAVE BOND ISSUES PASSED AT THE LOCAL LEVEL BY A SIMPLE MAJORITY, WILL PASS.

PHILIP>> WHAT ABOUT ALL THOSE PROPOSITIONS ON TODAY'S BALLOT? HERE IN GLENDALE AT THE KEPPEL ELEMENTARY POLLING PLACE, WE FOUND PLENTY OF VOTERS WHO SAID, "ENOUGH ALREADY". EVEN AFTER CRAMMING WITH THEIR VOTER GUIDES BACK HOME, THEY STILL COULDN'T FIGURE OUT WHAT WAS WHAT.

HAROLD GRIMES>> I THINK THERE'S REALLY TOO MANY PROPOSITIONS ON HERE. I MEAN, YOU GO TO VOTE AND HALF THE PEOPLE DON'T UNDERSTAND THEM, HOW TO VOTE FOR THEM. SOME OF THEM YOU VOTE YES, YEAH, YOU WANT IT. AND IF YOU DON'T WANT SOME OF THEM, YOU KNOW. I DON'T KNOW.

PHILIP>> BUT FOR OTHER VOTERS, THE PROPOSITIONS WERE A BIG REASON FOR COMING OUT.

JANE TAWEL>> YES, I DID WANT TO VOTE ON THE INDIAN CASINOS. I PERSONALLY DON'T WANT TO SEE A LOT OF GAMBLING IN CALIFORNIA, SO I THINK THAT THAT'S SOMETIMES A MISREPRESENTED PROPOSITION. I THINK THERE'S OTHER WAYS TO BE SELF-RELIANT.

PHILIP>> ISSUES ARE IMPORTANT IF YOU ASK THE PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA, A NON-PARTISAN GROUP THAT STUDIES THE STATE'S ELECTORATE. THEIR LATEST SURVEY SHOWS CALIFORNIA VOTERS CARE MOST ABOUT FIVE THINGS: SCHOOLS, TAXES, HEALTH CARE, SOCIAL SECURITY AND FEDERAL SPENDING. BUT AT THE POLLS TODAY, VOTERS CLEARLY CARED ABOUT A WHOLE LOT MORE.

PHILIP>> WHAT ARE THE BIG ISSUES FOR YOU TODAY? WHAT DO YOU CARE ABOUT?

JUSTINE KERNER>> UH, 22. NO ON 22. I THINK THAT'S SICK, WRONG, ALL THAT.

PHILIP>> PROP 22, WHICH WOULD BAN GAY MARRIAGES IN CALIFORNIA, IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SPILLOVER EFFECT IN THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE. BOTH MCCAIN AND BUSH ARE FOR IT, BUT IF THE MEASURE PROMPTS A BIG TURNOUT AMONG RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVES, THEIR VOTES MAY ALSO GO TO BUSH, WHO'S A FAVORITE OF THE CHRISTIAN RIGHT.

PHILIP>> YOU LIKE ANY OF THESE GUYS?

LESLIE SLOAN>> I DON'T FEEL THAT STRONGLY ABOUT -- IT'S ALWAYS THE LESSER OF TWO EVILS, IT FEELS LIKE, IN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS. SO I GOT TO VOTE FOR ONE SO I CAN KNOCK OUT ONE SO THE OTHER HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING.

PHILIP>> AND THEN THERE'S THE LATINO VOTE, NEWLY REGISTERED AND HEAVILY DEMOCRATIC. THIS YEAR, THEY ARE ABLE TO CROSS OVER PARTY LINES BECAUSE OF THE STATE'S NEW OPEN PRIMARY. RAMON RAMOS SAYS HE WOULDN'T HAVE MISSED IT.

RAMON RAMOS>> WELL, IT'S VERY IMPORTANT BECAUSE THIS IS MY FIRST TIME VOTING, SO I ENCOURAGE EVERYBODY TO COME AND DO THAT.

PHILIP>> YOU'RE EXCITED TO BE HERE TODAY?

RAMON RAMOS>> OH, YES, VERY MUCH. I WAS JUST WORKING, BUT I GET OFF A LITTLE BIT AND COME TO VOTE, SO IT'S MY FIRST TIME, I FEEL VERY HAPPY TO DO THAT.

PHILIP>> THE BIG LATINO VOTE IS ONLY ONE OF THE UNKNOWNS IN THIS ELECTION. ANOTHER IS THE IMPACT OF CROSS-OVERS, DEMOCRATS WHO VOTE FOR REPUBLICANS, FOR EXAMPLE. THE POLITICAL PARTIES STILL AREN'T QUITE SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THAT AND THEY'VE MADE SURE THAT, IN THIS OPEN PRIMARY, THEY'RE THE ONES WHO STILL HAVE CONTROL OVER THE DELEGATE SELECTION PROCESS. BUT ONE EXPERT, POLITICAL SCIENTIST FERNANDO GUERRA, SAYS THE PARTIES SHOULD STOP WORRYING.

FERNANDO GUERRA>> ALL THE DATA THAT WE HAVE, AND I SAY WE MEANING POLITICAL SCIENTISTS WHO STUDY THIS, SHOW THAT VERY FEW PEOPLE ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO CROSS OVER. AND I KNOW THAT THE BUSH CAMP DOESN'T LIKE THE IDEA OF PEOPLE CROSSING OVER BECAUSE THEY'RE ASSUMING THAT THEY'RE GOING TO VOTE FOR MCCAIN. BUT THEY SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE THAT OUR DATA INDICATES THAT, WHEN VOTERS CROSS OVER, THEY'RE ALSO LIKELY TO STAY OVER IN THE GENERAL ELECTION. SO THAT IF SOMEONE CROSSES OVER TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND VOTES FOR GEORGE BUSH, IF GEORGE BUSH IS THE NOMINEE, EVEN THOUGH THEY'RE A DEMOCRAT, THEY WILL PROBABLY MOST LIKELY ALSO VOTE FOR HIM IN THE GENERAL ELECTION.

WARREN>> SO IT WASN'T THE GRIPPING SOAP OPERA OF "NONE OF THE ABOVE" THAT GOT THE VOTERS OUT TODAY?

PHILIP>> THAT'S ONE OF THE MINOR PLAYS OF THE SOAP OPERA. YOU KNOW, SOME PEOPLE, I GUESS, ARE TURNING OUT FOR THAT, BUT CLEARLY THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE, THE HORSE RACE, IS DRIVING THIS THING TODAY.

WARREN>> AS OF SIX O'CLOCK, 36 PERCENT WAS THE TURNOUT IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THAT COMPARES TO 25 PERCENT FOUR YEARS AGO. A LOT OF PEOPLE, OF COURSE, VOTE AFTER WORK, VOTE LATE, AND SO IT REALLY COULD RISE PRETTY HIGH.

PHILIP>> I HEARD A LOT OF PEOPLE TODAY AT THE POLLS, PEOPLE INVOLVED WITH TRYING TO GET OUT THE VOTE, VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE WEATHER. AFRAID THAT THAT MIGHT DAMPEN LITERALLY THE TURNOUT TONIGHT IF IT RAINED. THIS MORNING, THE TURNOUT AT MOST POLLING PLACES ACROSS THE CITY AND ACROSS THE COUNTY WAS PRETTY GOOD. IF YOU WENT TO ANY OF THOSE PLACES TODAY, YOU KNOW WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. LONG LINES AND A LOT OF PEOPLE VERY ENERGIZED. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE REALLY HAVEN'T SEEN IN CALIFORNIA PRIMARIES. WE REALLY HAVEN'T HAD ONE THAT COUNTED IN DECADES AND THE FACT THAT WE'VE GOT THIS ONE THAT MATTERS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACE HAS PUMPED OUT TONS OF PEOPLE AND IT'S GOTTEN THEM VERY STIRRED UP BECAUSE THEY KNOW THEY CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE.

WARREN>> SURE.

VAL>> WHAT'S INTERESTING, THOUGH, EVEN THOUGH, OF COURSE, THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS DRAWING PEOPLE, IT DOESN'T SEEM AS THOUGH THERE'S ONE UNIQUE CALIFORNIA ISSUE THAT IS GALVANIZING THEM OR THAT WE ARE HOLDING THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES ACCOUNTABLE FOR.

PHILIP>> WELL, PROBABLY NOT ONE BIG SUPER ISSUE. BUT IF YOU HAD TO PICK SOMETHING BESIDES THE PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACE, I THINK PROP 22 MIGHT BE IT.

VAL>> YEAH, COMES CLOSE, BUT NOT REALLY A GALVANIZING -- NOT LIKE 187, NOT LIKE ANTI-AFFIRMATIVE ACTION -- NOTHING LIKE THAT.

PHILIP>> NOTHING ON THAT SWEEPING LEVEL. PROP 22 IS, FOR LACK OF A BETTER WORD, KIND OF A FRINGE ISSUE BECAUSE IT GALVANIZES THE VOTE IN THE VERY CONSERVATIVE RELIGIOUS SECTION, AND IN THE GAY COMMUNITY, IT'S OBVIOUSLY GOING TO DRAW --

VAL>> WE CALL IT A CULTURE CLASH KIND OF INITIATIVE. ONE THAT DOESN'T NECESSARILY HAVE A HUGE PRACTICAL APPLICATION, BUT IS REALLY MORE OF AN INDICATOR OF VALUES, A CONFLICT OF VALUES.

PHILIP>> BUT, YOU KNOW, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS ALL COMES INTO PLAY IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE BECAUSE JOHN MCCAIN, OBVIOUSLY, TOOK A VERY STRONG STAND AGAINST THE CHRISTIAN RIGHT IN THE LAST DAYS OF HIS CAMPAIGN. REALLY KIND OF AWOKE A LOT OF CHRISTIAN CONSERVATIVES IN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE COUNTRY WHO MIGHT HAVE BEEN WILLING TO SIT THIS OUT OR NOT BEEN SO AGITATED. THEY ARE VERY AGITATED NOW AND WILL PROBABLY COME OUT TO VOTE FOR 22 AND AGAINST HIM.

WARREN>> MAYBE CALIFORNIA, NOW THIS MINI-NATION -- NOT EVEN A MINI-NATION, THE SEVENTH LARGEST NATION IN THE WORLD IF IT WERE IN FACT AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY. MAYBE IT'S TOO DIVERSE TO HAVE ANY BIG STATEWIDE ONE SINGLE ELECTION AT ANY TIME.

PHILIP>> THAT'S RIGHT. YOU KNOW, YOU TALK ABOUT CALIFORNIA, IT MEANS LOTS OF THINGS TO LOTS OF PEOPLE. I THINK THE MAIN UNKNOWN RIGHT NOW IS THE OPEN PRIMARY. YOU KNOW, WE'VE ALL BEEN TALKING SO MUCH ABOUT THIS. HOW IT'S OPEN, BUT NOT REALLY. HOW YOU CAN VOTE FOR ANYBODY YOU WANT TO IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE, BUT IT DOESN'T COUNT UNLESS YOU'RE A MEMBER OF THE PARTY. THAT'S GOING TO BE AN ISSUE ONLY IF YOU SEE A SPLIT BETWEEN THE TOP VOTE-GETTER AND THE PERSON THAT GETS THE DELEGATE. SAY MCCAIN WOULD WIN THE POPULAR VOTE, BUSH WOULD WIN THE DELEGATES. IF YOU DON'T SEE THAT, IT'S NOT GOING TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.

WARREN>> AND IT'S NOT EVEN AN ISSUE DOWN THE TICKET BECAUSE PEOPLE VOTING FOR U.S. SENATE AND VOTING FOR CONGRESS ARE, IN FACT, IN REAL OPEN PRIMARIES. IF YOU'RE A DEMOCRAT AND YOU VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY, YOU CAN HELP TO NOMINATE A CANDIDATE.

PHILIP>> ONLY A BIG DEAL AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET AND PEOPLE DO LIKE VOTING IN THE OPEN PRIMARY, THEY TOLD US.

VAL>> AND, OF COURSE, WE SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE IS 20 MINUTES LEFT? -- NO, TAKE IT BACK, 15 MINUTES LEFT FOR PEOPLE TO TURN OUT TO VOTE AND THAT HIGH TURNOUT IS A GOOD SIGN. SO IF YOU HAVEN'T VOTED, PLEASE DO. THANK YOU VERY MUCH, PHILIP.

TIME NOW FOR OUR SPECIAL ELECTION NIGHT EDITION OF THINKERS, SHAKERS & NEWSMAKERS.

WELL, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY STATEWIDE RETURNS, BUT IT'S NEVER TOO EARLY FOR DIEHARD POLITICOS TO SIZE UP THE BALLOT AND DO A LITTLE BIT OF PREDICTING, POSTULATING AND ALL THAT.

WARREN>> WE GOT A COUPLE OF THE DIEHARD POLITICOS JOINING US RIGHT NOW. TWO PEOPLE WHO LOOK AT POLITICS THROUGH VERY DIFFERENT LENSES. VIRGINIA POSTREL IS EDITOR AT LARGE FOR REASON MAGAZINE, A LIBERTARIAN WITH A SMALL L. YOU ALSO SEE HER COLUMNS IN FORBES, IN THE WALL STREET, THE LA TIMES. ANTONIO GONZALEZ IS PRESIDENT OF THE WILLIE VALESQUEZ INSTITUTE, A NON-PARTISAN POLITICAL RESEARCH GROUP HERE IN LOS ANGELES WITH SPECIAL INTEREST IN LATINO VOTING PATTERNS. GOOD TO HAVE YOU BOTH WITH US.

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> GOOD TO BE HERE.

VAL>> BUT BEFORE WE GIVE YOU A CHANCE TO SAY ANYTHING, WE'RE GOING TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS RIGHT NOW. RIGHT NOW, JOHN MCCAIN IS PREPARING TO SPEAK TO VOTERS AT THE PACIFIC DESIGN CENTER HERE IN LOS ANGELES. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT HE'S GOING TO SAY, BUT WE DO HAVE SOMEONE ON THE SCENE. WE'LL LET YOU KNOW LATER TONIGHT DURING OUR ELECTION SPECIAL. HERE'S A SAMPLE, BY THE WAY, OF THE MOOD IN HIS HOTEL ROOM IN BEVERLY HILLS.

JOHN MCCAIN>> THERE'S NOT BEEN A SINGLE PREDICTION WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE PRIMARY SO FAR, SO I HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THIS ONE WOULD BE. NOBODY EXPECTED US TO WIN MICHIGAN.

WARREN>> VIRGINIA POSTREL, DID YOU VOTE FOR JOHN MCCAIN?

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> UH, NO. MY INTERESTING EXPERIENCE AT THE POLLS, ACTUALLY, WAS GOING INTO THE OPEN PRIMARY AS A NON-PARTISAN DECLINES-TO-STATE VOTER.

WARREN>> AH, AND THERE THEY ALL WERE. YOU COULD VOTE FOR THEM ANYWAY.

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> NOT ONLY THERE THEY ALL WERE, BUT THEY WOULD NOT GIVE ME A NON-PARTISAN BALLOT. THEY TOLD ME THEY DIDN'T HAVE ANY AND THEY SAID, YOU KNOW, PICK A PARTY AND THEY TRIED TO GIVE ME THE AMERICAN INDEPENDENT PARTY BECAUSE I WAS AN INDEPENDENT. THAT'S GEORGE WALLACE'S OLD PARTY AND THE ONE THING I LEARNED FROM MY PARENTS IS NEVER VOTE FOR GEORGE WALLACE. SO I TOOK --

WARREN>> I DON'T THINK HE'S RUNNING THIS YEAR.

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> -- A REPUBLICAN BALLOT BECAUSE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE, BUT THAT MEANS THAT MY VOTE COUNTED EVEN THOUGH I'M AN INDEPENDENT. THEY'RE HAVING A FEW BUGS --

WARREN>> SO YOU DID VOTE FOR A REPUBLICAN ON YOUR REPUBLICAN BALLOT?

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> YEAH, I DID VOTE FOR BUSH.

VAL>> ANTONIO, ANY VOTING BOOTH STORIES FROM YOU?

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> IN GENERAL, THE LATINO PARTICIPATION, I THINK, WAS GOOD. WE DON'T HAVE ANY EXCITING INTERESTING STORIES FOR YOU, BUT IT CONTINUES THE PATTERN OF BEING UP. THERE PROBABLY WAS ABOUT 300,000 VOTES CAST IN LA COUNTY BY LATINOS TODAY, ABOUT 700,000 AROUND THE STATE, A GOOD TREND. THERE WAS NOT ANY OVER-ARCHING ISSUES, BUT A LOT OF SORT OF LITTLE ENGINES THAT DROVE LATINO TURNOUT. IF YOU'RE A CONSERVATIVE LATINO, YOU ARE PROBABLY EVANGELICAL LIKE MANY CENTRAL AMERICANS ARE. PROP 22 DROVE YOU. IF YOU'RE CONCERNED ABOUT PUBLIC EDUCATION WHICH IS THE OVER-ARCHING NUMBER ONE ISSUE IN THE LATINO COMMUNITY, PROP 26 DROVE YOU. AND THERE WAS SOME INTERESTING LOCAL COMPETITIONS BETWEEN, FOR EXAMPLE, MARTY MARTINEZ, SORT OF AN OLD-GUARD ESTABLISHED POLITICIAN IN THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY, VERSUS SENATOR SOLIS, AN ACTIVIST, UP AND COMING LEADER --

WARREN>> MARTINEZ, A CONGRESSMAN, SENATOR SOLIS ATTEMPTING TO --

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> TO UNSEAT HIM.

WARREN>> -- UNSEAT HIM, YEAH.

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> IN MANY WAYS, YOU SAW SOME OF THE TERM LIMIT LOGIC IMPOSING ITSELF NOT ONLY IN THE LATINO COMMUNITY, BUT IN OTHER COMMUNITIES IN THE GLENDALE-PASADENA AREA. A REALLY INTERESTING DEMOCRATIC RACE BETWEEN WILDMAN AND SCOTT. A REALLY INTERESTING LATINO AFRICAN-AMERICAN COMPETITION IN THE LONG BEACH AREA BETWEEN KEITH MCDONALD AND [JENNY ROPESA]. SO THERE'S SOME INTERESTING LOCALIZED ENGINES THAT HELP TO DRIVE TURNOUT UP. IT'S GOOD. NOT FANTASTIC, BUT A GOOD LEVEL.

WARREN>> WERE THERE SOME CONTESTED PRIMARIES, DO YOU THINK, ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE THAT MIGHT HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE TURNOUT?

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> I'M SURE THERE WERE AROUND THE STATE. I LIVE IN A HEAVILY DEMOCRATIC AREA AND FOLLOW MOSTLY NATIONAL POLITICS, SO I COULDN'T SAY. I'M SURE THAT 22 GALVANIZED PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE AS WELL. AS ON THE ANTI-22, I WOULD EXPECT THAT YOU WOULD SEE SOME OF YOUR MORE LIBERTARIAN LEANING REPUBLICANS COMING ACTUALLY TO VOTE AGAINST THAT. OF COURSE, 26, WHILE IT'S TRUE THAT IT APPEALS TO PEOPLE WITH SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN, IT ALSO GETS A REAL ANTI-VOTE FROM THE PEOPLE WHO ARE DETERMINED TO PRESERVE PROP 13. THAT'S THE SCHOOL BOND.

WARREN>> 26, WE BOTH MENTIONED, WHICH OF COURSE WOULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF VOTES YOU NEED TO PASS A SCHOOL BOND --

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> RIGHT. MAKE IT EASIER TO PASS SCHOOL BONDS. THAT'S RIGHT.

WARREN>> -- FROM TWO-THIRDS DOWN TO A SIMPLE MAJORITY, 50 PERCENT.

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> BUT I REALLY THINK THE DRIVER IS THE BIG -- THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1972 THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY IN CALIFORNIA HAS MADE ANY DIFFERENCE AT ALL AND IT COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE PARTICULARLY IN THE REPUBLICAN RACE.

VAL>> I WAS SURPRISED, THOUGH, DESPITE OUR REPORTING HERE ON LIFE AND TIMES TELLING PEOPLE THAT THIS OPEN PRIMARY REALLY ISN'T THAT OPEN, WHEN IT COMES TO THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, THAT AN ENORMOUS NUMBER OF PEOPLE ONLY REALIZED TODAY THAT, IF THEY CROSSED OVER IN THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE, THAT THEIR VOTE WOULD NOT REALLY COUNT. THAT AMAZES ME. DO YOU THINK THAT THIS WILL CREATE SORT OF A REVOLT OR CALL FOR REFORM?

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> I THINK THERE'S TWO KINDS OF CALLS FOR REFORM THAT ARE GOING TO COME OUT OF THIS. ONE, A CALL TO THE PARTIES TO LET VOTES BE COUNTED. --

VAL>> HAVE A TRUE --

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> AS YOU SAID, IF YOU WEREN'T A REPUBLICAN AND YOU VOTED FOR A REPUBLICAN, YOUR VOTE DIDN'T COUNT AND VICE VERSA. OR IF YOU'RE NOT IN THE OTHER PARTY, YOUR VOTE DIDN'T COUNT EITHER WAY, IF YOU VOTED FOR ONE OF THE TWO MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATES. SECOND, THIS REALLY WAS A LONG, COMPLICATED BALLOT. IT OUGHT TO BE TIME TO TALK ABOUT FORCING THE LEGISLATURE TO START PASSING LEGISLATION AND START GOVERNING INSTEAD OF PASSING ISSUES ON TO THE VOTERS --

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> THIS WAS LESS COMPLICATED THAN SOME OF THE BALLOTS WE'VE HAD.

WARREN>> YEAH, THIS WAS NOT SO BAD.

VAL>> BUT, ON THE OTHER HAND, THE PERFECT EXAMPLE OF WHAT YOU'RE SAYING, ANTONIO, IS THE PROPOSITION 30 AND 31, THE INSURANCE --

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> ABSOLUTELY, ABSOLUTELY. TOTALLY CONFUSING.

VAL>> -- WHICH WERE LAW. THEY WERE SITTING THERE, THEY WERE SIGNED, READY TO GO INTO EFFECT --

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> BUT IN ESSENCE, THE LEGISLATURE AND THE GOVERNOR --

WARREN>> WHO HAD, IN FACT, DONE THEIR JOBS. THEY PASSED AND SIGNED, IN THE GOVERNOR'S CASE, THESE THINGS. PUT THEM ON THE BALLOT. I MEAN, THEY ENACTED THEM INTO LAW. --

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> WE HAVE A PROGRESSIVE ERA HERITAGE IN THIS STATE AND IT'S NOT GOING AWAY. YOU KNOW, PEOPLE CAN SIT AROUND AND SAY IT WOULD BE NICE IF WE WOULD -- SO COMPLICATED -- THE LEGISLATURE SHOULD DO THEIR JOB, BUT PEOPLE LIKE THE ABILITY TO PUT THINGS ON THE BALLOT --

WARREN>> THEY LIKE THE INITIATIVES BETTER THAN THEY LIKE POLITICIANS.

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> -- AND THEY FEEL, AS COMPLICATED AS IT IS TO ASSESS THOSE INITIATIVES, I THINK PEOPLE FEEL MORE CONNECTION TO IT WHEN THEY CAN VOTE ON AN ISSUE THAT THEY CAN HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THAN THE BUNDLE THEY BUY FROM THE POLITICIANS.

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> I THINK WE'VE TURNED THE CORNER THERE. I THINK WE'RE BEGINNING TO TURN THE CORNER. I THINK THAT PEOPLE ARE BEGINNING TO SAY, "YOU KNOW WHAT? THIS IS RIDICULOUS."

WARREN>> WE GOT SOME NEWS.

VAL>> WE JUST GOT WORD IN MY EAR THAT CNN JUST DECLARED NEW YORK FOR BUSH. THIS --

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> IT'S OVER. YEAH, THAT'S IT.

VAL>> -- ESSENTIALLY PUTS MCCAIN OUT OF THE RACE.

WARREN>> WHAT ABOUT IT? HE STILL HAS SOME MORE PRIMARIES TO GO THROUGH AND HE STILL HAS CALIFORNIA --

VAL>> HE'S SITTING HERE IN THE BEVERLY HILLS HOTEL AT THIS MOMENT IN CALIFORNIA.

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> HE HAD TO WIN NEW YORK OR OHIO. IT WAS CLEAR HE WAS GOING TO LOSE CALIFORNIA. HE'S GOING TO SWEEP, IT LOOKS LIKE, THE NORTHEASTERN SORT OF NEW ENGLAND STATES, BUT THERE'S SO FEW DELEGATES THERE --

WARREN>> DO YOU MEAN THE VOTES IN CALIFORNIA WON'T COUNT, AFTER ALL? WE'RE TELLING PEOPLE TO GO TO THE POLLS --

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> WHAT HAS BEEN REALLY INTERESTING TO WATCH, I'VE GONE IN THE LAST MONTH FROM WATCHING JOHN MCAIN AND SAYING THIS GUY IS GOING TO GO ALL THE WAY TO 1600 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE TO GOING THIS IS THE MOST REMARKABLE THING I HAVE EVER SEEN. FIRST, WE'VE SEEN BILL BRADLEY MAKE AL GORE LOOK INTERESTING AND FEISTY AND NOW --

WARREN>> THOUGHT IT COULD NEVER BE DONE.

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> -- WE'VE SEEN JOHN MCCAIN MAKE GEORGE W. BUSH LOOK MATURE AND SERIOUS. HE HAS --

VAL>> AND CONSERVATIVE.

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> -- WELL, WE SAW CONSERVATIVE FIRST. BUT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, ALL OF THOSE PEOPLE WHO WERE TELLING US A WHILE BACK THAT MCCAIN WAS KIND OF A LITTLE NUTS, HE'S STARTED TO ACT IT.

WARREN>> BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER HE'S MADE BUSH LOOK SO CONSERVATIVE THAT HE WILL APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR TO THE RIGHT FOR THE GENERAL ELECTORATE.

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> WELL, TWO THINGS ARE HAPPENING HERE. BUSH HAD TO TACK FAR TO THE RIGHT AND CONSOLIDATE HIS BASE THERE AND LOSE THE CENTER IN THE PROCESS, WHICH HE HELD FOR SOME TIME, TO MCCAIN. THAT'S GOING TO HURT HIM IN THE GENERAL. THE OTHER THING IS THAT THE LOGIC OF THE PRIMARIES, THE CLOSED PRIMARY SYSTEM IS TAKING HOLD. IT'S GOING TO BE EVEN -- EVEN IF MCCAIN HAD WON ONE OF THOSE TWO TODAY, OHIO OR NEW YORK, HE WOULD BE CRUSHED BY THE CLOSED PRIMARY SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. IT'S ALMOST THE INEVITABLE OCCURRING A LITTLE BIT --

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> JUST AS IF SOMEHOW BRADLEY HAD PULLED OFF A MIRACLE. THE SUPER DELEGATES IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY -- UNLESS BRADLEY WAS JUST TROUNCING GORE EVERYWHERE, THE SUPER DELEGATES WERE GOING TO GO WITH GORE AND --

WARREN>> SO BOTH PARTIES HAVE WAYS, THEN, OF GETTING AROUND THE OPEN PRIMARY. WHETHER THE VOTERS LIKE IT OR NOT, THE PARTIES HAVE FOUND WAYS TO OVERCOME IT.

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> THE OTHER THING IS, IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY AT LEAST, A LOT OF THE OPEN PRIMARIES ARE IN THE SOUTH. I MEAN, I'M FROM SOUTH CAROLINA. YOU DON'T HAVE PARTY REGISTRATION THERE. THE PARTY IS ALWAYS OPEN AND YET, WHAT WAS THAT? THE MOST CONSERVATIVE ELECTORATE. I MEAN, THAT WAS THE ONE WHERE BUSH WAS, YOU KNOW, TACKING RIGHT. SO IT WAS NOT REALLY THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. IT'S JUST A VERY CONSERVATIVE STATE EARLY ON IN THE PROCESS.

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> THE ONE WILD CARD IN THIS SCENARIO IS MONEY. MCCAIN HAS DONE A GREAT JOB AT RAISING MONEY. HE'S RAISED $10 MILLION THIS LAST MONTH --

WARREN>> AND BUSH HAS DONE A BAD JOB OF SPENDING IT.

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> AND MCCAIN HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OF DRAINING THE MONEY FROM BUSH.

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> SO HE MAY HAVE SOME LEGS IF HE WANTS TO CONTINUE TO FIGHT AND JUST MAKE THINGS TOUGH ON BUSH, BUT THERE IS AN INEVITABLE LOGIC. THE AMOUNT OF MONEY HE'S RAISED, IT'S THE ONE FACTOR THAT YOU CAN'T DISCOUNT.

WARREN>> EXIT POLLS SO FAR SHOW THAT, IN STATES WHERE IT MATTERS, VICE PRESIDENT GORE HAS TAKEN THE LATINO VOTE IN A BIG WAY. BRADLEY DIDN'T EVEN HAVE A CHANCE. GOVERNOR BUSH IS SAID TO BE VERY STRONG WITH THAT COMMUNITY. WHAT DO YOU THINK AND CAN HE COMPETE WITH GORE FOR THAT PORTION OF THE ELECTORATE?

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> WELL, IT'S DIVERSE. THE LATINO VOTE IS DIVERSE ON THIS QUESTION OF GORE VERSUS BUSH. GORE DOES VERY WELL IN CALIFORNIA AGAINST BUSH. BUSH DOES VERY WELL IN FLORIDA. IT'S SORT OF A TOSS-UP IN TEXAS AND ILLINOIS. GORE DOES WELL IN NEW YORK.

VAL>> IT'S A TOSS-UP IN TEXAS?

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> IT'S A TOSS-UP IN TEXAS. THE BUSH STRENGTH IN TEXAS WAS ALWAYS EXAGGERATED. IT WAS GOOD FOR A REPUBLICAN --

VAL>> ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT --

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> AMONG LATINOS. IT WAS GOOD FOR A REPUBLICAN. HE GOT 40 PERCENT IN 1998. HE EXAGGERATED AND SAID 50, BUT IT WASN'T. IT WAS 40. AND HE'S ABOUT EVEN WITH GORE RIGHT NOW, WHICH IS GOOD. THAT'S GOOD. LATINOS HAVE A VERY DEMOCRATIC TRADITION IN TEXAS. SO IT'S A TOSS-UP THERE. NOW IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW IT'S GOING TO UNFOLD. THERE GOING TO HAVE TO TALK ABOUT ISSUES TO SEE WHO'S GOING TO GET THE VOTE NOW.

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> AND BUSH IS DEFINITELY GOING TO MAKE A PLAY FOR THE LATINO VOTE IN A VERY SERIOUS WAY AND I THINK IT GOES BEYOND HIS ELECTORAL STRATEGY. IT ACTUALLY HAS TO DO WITH THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. BACK WHEN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IN CALIFORNIA WAS DOING EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO DRIVE LATINOS OUT OF THE PARTY, BUSH AND TEXANS IN GENERAL WERE TRYING TO PULL THEM IN AND TAKING A VERY DIFFERENT APPROACH TOWARD LATINOS AND SAYING, NO, THIS IS A NATURALLY CONTESTABLE CONSTITUENCY AND WE HAVE A LOT IN COMMON WITH LATINOS. AND IT REALLY SHOULD BE 50-50.

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> IT'S VERY TRUE AND IT'S THE SAME STRATEGY THAT REPUBLICANS USED DURING THE REAGAN ERA IN CALIFORNIA WITH SOME SUCCESS.

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> EXACTLY. REAGAN REPUBLICANS WERE --

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> LET ME TELL YOU, GOVERNOR BUSH HAS FANTASTIC PR PEOPLE. IF YOU LOOK AT THE SPOTS IN SPANISH, THEY ARE JUST HEAD AND SHOULDERS ABOVE GORE'S SPOTS, EVEN THOUGH GORE'S GOT SOME GOOD SPOTS. HE'S GOT SOME GOOD SPOTS, BUT THEY'RE JUST EXCELLENT.

VAL>> WHEN YOU SAY HEAD AND SHOULDERS --

WARREN>> WHAT'S BETTER ABOUT THEM?

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> THEY REALLY TAP INTO AND TOUCH ALL THE VALUES THAT LATINOS THINK ARE IMPORTANT. FAMILY -- AND THEY DO IT IN A WAY THAT IS SENSITIVE AND TOUCHING --

VAL>> IN THE IMAGES, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT?

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> THE IMAGES, THE LANGUAGE THEY USE, THE FIGURES. BUSH IS OKAY IN SPANISH, GORE IS OKAY IN SPANISH. GORE HAS GOTTEN GOOD FAST. HE DIDN'T USED TO BE OKAY. HE'S MUCH BETTER NOW. YOU KNOW, THE GUY'S A HARD WORKER. SO THAT'S GOING TO BE VERY INTERESTING. BUSH HAS GOT A HEAD UP THERE.

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> IT'S GOING TO BE INTERESTING. I'VE ALWAYS SAID THAT BILL CLINTON'S GREAT STRENGTH WITH BLACK VOTERS WAS THAT HE LOOKED GENUINELY COMFORTABLE AND HAPPY TO BE AROUND BLACK PEOPLE. IT WASN'T ABOUT ISSUES ON AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, WELFARE REFORM, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH. IT WAS LIKE HE LIKES BLACK PEOPLE AND I THINK THERE'S A POTENTIAL THING WITH BUSH AND SOMETHING SIMILAR WITH BUSH AND LATINOS.

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> NOW LET'S NOT EXAGGERATE THE POINT. HE DOES WELL, HE DOES WELL --

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> NO, NO, I DIDN'T MEAN TO SAY HE'D GET 90 PERCENT OF THE LATINO VOTE.

WARREN>> HOW BADLY, VIRGINIA, DID MCCAIN TARNISH BUSH WITH RIGHT-WING EXTREMISM AND HOW DIFFICULT IS IT GOING TO BE, DO YOU THINK, FOR BUSH TO OVERCOME THAT?

VIRGINIA POSTREL>> WELL, I THINK HE OBVIOUSLY DID TARNISH HIM, PARTICULARLY WITH THE BOB JONES THING. THAT'S WHERE I'M FROM. GREENVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA. BOB JONES PLAYS IT SO CONSERVATIVE THAT THE OTHER FUNDAMENTALISTS MAKE FUN OF THEM. YOU KNOW, IT'S REALLY, REALLY EXTREME AND BUSH DIDN'T REALIZE THAT. HE WAS PANDERING IN THE SAME WAY, AND I'M GOING TO USE A DIFFERENT ONE FROM WHAT THE LINE IS, IN THE SAME WAY THAT WHEN GORE WENT TO A HASSIDIC COMMUNITY WHERE THE WOMEN WERE EXCLUDED FROM HIS SPEECH AND THEY DON'T APPROVE OF OTHER JEWS. YOU KNOW, IT WAS THAT SAME KIND OF THING, BUT THAT WAS IN NEW YORK AND EVERYBODY TAKES IT FOR GRANTED --

WARREN>> I THINK WE'RE OUT OF TIME.

VAL>> FINAL THOUGHT, ANTONIO.

ANTONIO GONZALEZ>> MY DEMOCRATIC FRIENDS ARE SALIVATING WAITING TO GET AT BUSH ON HIS TACK TO THE FAR RIGHT. THEY THINK THEY'RE GOING TO WRAP IT AROUND --

WARREN>> OKAY. THIS IS THE CONVERSATION THAT WILL PERSIST NOW UNTIL NOVEMBER. WE ARE VERY GLAD TO HAVE YOU GIVE US A PREVIEW OF IT. THANKS VERY MUCH TO BOTH OF YOU FOR BEING HERE.

VAL>> AND A REAL QUICK RECAP FOR OUR VIEWERS, CNN HAS CALLED THAT BUSH HAS WON NEW YORK, ALONG WITH GEORGIA, MAINE, MARYLAND, MISSOURI AND OHIO. MCCAIN CAPTURED ONLY THREE STATES. IT'S A CLEAN SWEEP FOR GORE, AND BRADLEY HAS ALL BUT CONCEDED.

WARREN>> WAIT UNTIL CALIFORNIA.

VAL>> THAT IS OUR PROGRAM FOR NOW, BUT LATER TONIGHT, PATT MORRISON, HUGH HEWITT AND KERMAN MADDOX CONTINUE THIS LIVELY CONVERSATION. THEY'LL JOIN US FOR A LIFE AND TIMES TONIGHT ELECTION NIGHT SPECIAL COMING UP AT 11:30 P.M. TONIGHT.

WARREN>> THAT'S AT 11:30 AT OUR LIFE AND TIMES TONIGHT ELECTION SPECIAL.

COMING UP TOMORROW ON WHICH WAY LA, WHO WON? WHO LOST? WHAT'S NEXT FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AND FOR CALIFORNIA. DON'T FORGET ABOUT THAT. A WRAP-UP OF ELECTION RETURNS AND A LOOK AHEAD. THAT'S TOMORROW.

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VAL>> FOR ALL OF US HERE AT LIFE AND TIMES TONIGHT, HAVE A GREAT EVENING. SEE YOU AT 11:30.

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