11/19/02

LC021119

JESS MARLOW>> TONIGHT ON LIFE AND TIMES --

HE IS L.A.’S TEN MILLION DOLLAR MAN. THAT’S HOW MUCH SOME PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO PAY JUST TO GET RID OF HIM.

DAVID TOKOFSKY>> I’M KIND OF NONPLUSED AND PERPLEXED AS TO WHAT THE GOAL IS, SO IT COMES OFF AS SEEMING LIKE IT’S A POWER PLAY RATHER THAN SOMETHING ABOUT THE CLASSROOM AND KIDS AND EDUCATION.

JESS>> EXPERTS SAY A HUGE EARTHQUAKE MAY BE JUST AROUND THE CORNER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT HOW DO THEY KNOW THAT?

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TONIGHT A LEADING EARTHQUAKE EXPERT FROM CAL TECH TELLS US WHY SOME PEOPLE ARE SO CERTAIN ANOTHER BIG ONE IS HEADED OUR WAY.

THEN WE’LL TAKE YOU INSIDE A SPECTACULAR CALIFORNIA HOME. IT WAS ONCE OWNED BY BARBRA STREISAND AND WAS A SHOWCASE FOR HER ART DECO COLLECTION. NOW THE HOUSE IS PART OF A STATE PARK AND WE’LL TELL YOU HOW YOU CAN SEE IT.

IT’S ALL COMING UP NEXT ON TONIGHT’S LIFE AND TIMES.

LIFE AND TIMES TONIGHT IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE FOLLOWING FOUNDATIONS:

THE L.K. WHITTIER FOUNDATION
DEDICATED TO IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF LIFE BY SUPPORTING INNOVATIVE ENDEAVORS IN THE FIELDS OF MEDICINE, HEALTH, SCIENCE AND EDUCATION.

AND THE CALIFORNIA ENDOWMENT
THE STATE'S LARGEST HEALTH FOUNDATION SUPPORTING ORGANIZATIONS THAT DIRECTLY IMPROVE THE HEALTH AND WELL-BEING OF CALIFORNIA'S DIVERSE COMMUNITIES. THE CALIFORNIA ENDOWMENT, A PARTNER FOR HEALTHIER COMMUNITIES.

JESS>> GOOD EVENING. VAL HAS THE NIGHT OFF.

WHY WOULD TWO OF THE CITY’S RICHEST PEOPLE WANT TO SPEND TEN MILLION DOLLARS TO UNSEAT A SCHOOL BOARD MEMBER? THAT’S A QUESTION WE’LL TRY TO ANSWER TONIGHT AS WE MEET THE MAN WHO’S BEEN IDENTIFIED AS THE TARGET. HIS NAME IS DAVID TOKOFSKY AND, AS GAY YEE TELLS US, HIS TWO BIGGEST ENEMIES ARE A FORMER MAYOR AND A BILLIONAIRE.

GAY YEE>> DAVID TOKOFSKY IS A SELF-DESCRIBED RADICAL REFORMER. THE ONE-TIME MARSHALL HIGH SCHOOL SOCIAL STUDIES TEACHER FIRST WON ELECTION TO THE SCHOOL BOARD IN 1995. IT WAS A TIGHT RACE IN THE HEAVILY-LATINO FIFTH DISTRICT IN THE EASTERN PART OF L.A. NOW TOKOFSKY’S GOING FOR A THIRD TERM, BUT THIS TIME AROUND, HE MAY BE FACING HIS BIGGEST CHALLENGE YET. PUBLISHED REPORTS SAY FORMER L.A. MAYOR, RICHARD RIORDAN, AND RIORDAN’S CLOSE FRIEND, BILLIONAIRE PHILANTHROPIST, ELI BROAD, ARE WILLING TO SPEND MILLIONS TO MAKE SURE HE’S DEFEATED.

DAVID TOKOFSKY>> I’M KIND OF NONPLUSED AND PERPLEXED AS TO WHAT THE GOAL IS, SO IT COMES OFF AS SEEMING LIKE IT’S A POWER PLAY RATHER THAN SOMETHING ABOUT THE CLASSROOM AND KIDS AND EDUCATION.

GAY YEE>> IN A SERIES OF STORIES THIS MONTH, THE L.A. TIMES REPORTED THAT RIORDAN AND BROAD TRIED TO PERSUADE THE HEAD OF OCCIDENTAL COLLEGE TO RUN FOR TOKOFSKY’S SEAT. OCCIDENTAL PRESIDENT, TED MITCHELL, IS A FORMER DEAN OF UCLA’S SCHOOL OF EDUCATION AND A LONG-TIME RIORDAN ADVISER ON EDUCATION. NEWS REPORTS SUGGESTED THAT BROAD WAS WILLING TO GIVE OCCIDENTAL A TEN MILLION DOLLAR GIFT IF MITCHELL WOULD RUN AGAINST TOKOFSKY. THE TIMES ALSO REPORTED THAT RIORDAN WAS OFFERING ANOTHER MILLION FOR THE COLLEGE TO HIRE A PROVOST TO HELP RELIEVE MITCHELL’S WORKLOAD SHOULD HE WIN THE SCHOOL BOARD SEAT. IN THE END, MITCHELL DECIDED NOT TO RUN, BUT THE STORY HAS CALLED INTO QUESTION THE INVOLVEMENT OF THESE TWO WEALTHY MEN IN SCHOOL BOARD POLITICS.

HOWARD BLUME>> WHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS? I MEAN, I HAVE A SOURCE THAT SAYS THERE’S NOTHING WRONG WITH THIS. BUT IF YOU WANT TO BE CRITICAL OF THIS, YOU COULD SAY IT’S KIND OF ELITIST BECAUSE IT IS ONCE AGAIN MAYOR RIORDAN AND BROAD SAYING WE KNOW WHAT’S BEST FOR THE SCHOOL DISTRICT, TRUST US TO DO THE RIGHT THING.

GAY YEE>> HOWARD BLUME IS THE L.A. WEEKLY’S ASSOCIATE NEWS EDITOR.

HOWARD BLUME>> NOW THEY DON’T HAVE A CORNER ON THAT MARKET BY ANY DEGREE, BUT TO HAVE SUCH A PALPABLE INCIDENT IN WHICH SUCH EFFORTS ARE EXPOSED, IT BECOMES VERY NEWSWORTHY.

GAY YEE>> RIORDAN DIDN’T RESPOND TO OUR REQUEST FOR COMMENT, BUT IN THE PAST, HE’S TALKED FREELY ABOUT HIS ROLE IN BACKING SCHOOL BOARD CANDIDATES.

RICHARD RIORDAN>> THE PROUDEST AND MOST IMPORTANT THING I’VE DONE SINCE I’VE BEEN MAYOR IS TO PUT CANDIDATES UP AGAINST SCHOOL BOARD MEMBERS. WHEN YOU REALIZE THAT A POOR SIX-YEAR-OLD IN THE L.A. SYSTEM HAD ONLY A TWELVE PERCENT CHANCE TO READ AND WRITE AT THE EIGHTH GRADE LEVEL, BY THE TIME THEY’RE EIGHTEEN, YOU KNEW SOMETHING WAS WRONG.

GAY YEE>> RIORDAN’S FIRST EFFORT TO CHANGE THE BOARD CAME IN 1999 AND IT WAS SUCCESSFUL. HIS GROUP, THE COALITION FOR KIDS, BACKED THREE NEWCOMERS, CAPRICE YOUNG, MIKE LANSING AND GENETHIA HAYES, WHO ALL BEAT INCUMBENTS. BUT TWO YEARS AGO, ANOTHER RIORDAN PUSH FAILED. MATTHEW RODMAN AND TOM RILEY WERE BOTH DEFEATED AND NOW COMES THE OCCIDENTAL CONTROVERSY. NELLIE RIOS-PARRA IS ONE OF THREE CANDIDATES CHALLENGING DAVID TOKOFSKY. SHE WAS RECENTLY INVITED TO MEET WITH RIORDAN AND BROAD.

NELLIE RIOS-PARRA>> BUT I DID HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SIT WITH THEM AND JUST HEAR WHAT THEIR CONCERNS ARE FOR THE UPCOMING ELECTION AND FOR THEM TO GET TO KNOW ME.

GAY YEE>> SHE SAYS SHE DECIDED TO RUN FOR THE SCHOOL BOARD AFTER HER HUSBAND, ALVIN PARRA, WITHDREW FROM HIS PLAN TO RUN AGAINST CITY COUNCILMAN, NICK PACHECO. SO WHY DID ALVIN DROP OUT OF THE RACE? TWO WORDS: ANTONIO VILLARAIGOSA, A CANDIDATE WHO ENJOYS STRONG SUPPORT FROM ELI BROAD.

NELLIE RIOS-PARRA>> AND WHEN PEOPLE FINALLY REALIZED, OH, YOU KNOW WHAT? ANTONIO IS GOING TO RUN AND ALVIN SAID THEN I’M STEPPING ASIDE. THEY SAID, WELL, WHY DON’T YOU CONSIDER RUNNING FOR SCHOOL BOARD? MY HUSBAND SAID, YOU KNOW WHAT? THAT’S NOT MY BACKGROUND. HE SAID MAYBE MY WIFE, BUT NOT ME.

GAY YEE>> TOKOFSKY SAYS THE WORD ON THE STREET IS THAT RIOS-PARRA WILL HAVE THE SUPPORT OF RIORDAN, BROAD AND THEIR COALITION FOR KIDS IN HER CAMPAIGN AGAINST HIM.

DAVID TOKOFSKY>> THEY’VE SHOWN THAT THEY WILL PUT TEN MILLION DOLLARS INTO A CAMPAIGN, SO I THINK I WOULD HAVE TO RAISE CLEARLY A HALF MILLION DOLLARS TO MAKE MY MESSAGE KNOWN. BUT I CAN TELL YOU, EACH AND EVERY DAY THAT I WALK THE STREETS AND ASK FOR PEOPLE TO SIGN MY PETITIONS TO BE ON THE BALLOT, PEOPLE ARE REALLY UPSET, THAT THEIR VOTE IS NOT FOR SALE.

HOWARD BLUME>> IF YOU’RE DAVID TOKOFSKY AND YOU’RE RUNNING FOR THE SCHOOL BOARD, THEN YOU CLEARLY PLAY YOUR CAMPAIGN AS THE MAN WHO COULDN’T BE BOUGHT.

GAY YEE>> IT MAY BE IRONIC NOW, BUT FOUR YEARS AGO, RIORDAN DID ENDORSE TOKOFSKY AFTER FAILING TO FIND ANOTHER CANDIDATE MORE TO HIS LIKING. TOKOFSKY ACKNOWLEDGES THAT RIORDAN HAS A GENUINE CONCERN FOR KIDS AND THEIR EDUCATION. BOARD MEMBER, GENETHIA HAYES, ECHOES THAT VIEW AND SAYS RIORDAN HAS NEVER TRIED TO PRESSURE HER TO SEE THINGS HIS WAY.

GENETHIA HAYES>> I CAN HONESTLY SAY TO YOU AND LOOK AT YOU AND SAY TO YOU THAT DICK RIORDAN HAS NEVER CALLED ME. HE HAS NEVER THREATENED ME. HE HAS NEVER DEMANDED THAT I VOTE IN A PARTICULAR WAY.

GAY YEE>> BUT HAYES SAYS SHE WAS ALARMED WHEN SHE READ A QUOTE FROM RIORDAN SUGGESTING ONE REASON HE WANTS A CHANGE IS THAT TOKOFSKY NEVER CALLS HIM BEFORE HE VOTES.

GENETHIA HAYES>> I THINK IT MAKES IT DIFFICULT BECAUSE THEN WE ALL GET TARRED AND FEATHERED WITH THIS WHOLE NOTION THAT WE’RE ALL PICKING UP THE PHONE AND TALKING TO DICK RIORDAN BEFORE WE GO SIT DOWN AT THE BOARD.

GAY YEE>> HAYES SAYS SHE FEARS A HUGE BACKLASH FROM ALL THIS AGAINST RIORDAN, BROAD AND THE COALITION.

GENETHIA HAYES>> PROBABLY THIS IS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT THEY’RE PROBABLY SAYING TO THEMSELVES, GEE, IF WE COULD HAVE THIS BACK, IF WE COULD DO THIS OVER AGAIN.

GAY YEE>> BUT DAVID TOKOFSKY SAYS THIS LATEST BIG MONEY EFFORT TO BEAT HIM SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT THE POLITICAL REALITIES OF LIFE IN LOS ANGELES.

DAVID TOKOFSKY>> I THINK THIS CITY HAS A HISTORY. I THINK THEY USED TO HAVE A COMMITTEE OF TWENTY-FOUR THAT DECIDED WHAT WAS BEST FOR THE PEOPLE OF THE CITY OF LOS ANGELES. UNFORTUNATELY, THAT COMMITTEE SEEMS TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH SMALLER. WE HAVE TWENTY-SIX CITIES IN THIS SCHOOL DISTRICT THAT THE COMMUNITY OF INTEREST IS FAR BROADER -- EXCUSE THE PLAY ON WORDS -- NOT BROADER, BUT BROADER THAN BROAD.

JESS>> WE’RE JOINED BY FERNANDO GUERRA. HE IS DIRECTOR OF THE CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF LOS ANGELES AT LOYOLA MARYMOUNT UNIVERSITY. THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME WEALTHY PEOPLE, OR THESE TWO MEN, HAVE BEEN INVOLVED IN LOCAL POLITICS, SO WHY DO YOU SUPPOSE THIS CASE IS GETTING SO MUCH ATTENTION?

FERNANDO GUERRA>> WELL, NUMBER ONE, BECAUSE IT IS RIORDAN AND BROAD. I MEAN, THESE ARE TWO VERY WEALTHY GUYS WITH BIG IDEAS, BIG EGOS, AND THEY DO EVERYTHING BIG AND IT CATCHES PEOPLES’ ATTENTION. NUMBER TWO, IN A DEMOCRACY, WE HAVE TO COVER CAMPAIGNS. EVEN THOUGH THE NOVEMBER CAMPAIGN JUST ENDED, MARCH POLITICS HAS ALREADY BEGUN NOT ONLY WITH THIS ELECTION, BUT WE’VE SEEN WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING WITH VILLARAIGOSA AND PACHECO.

THEN NUMBER THREE, THIS IS DRAMATIC. I MEAN, HERE IS A WHITE POLITICIAN IN A HEAVILY-LATINO DISTRICT WITH TWO WHITE WEALTHY GUYS GOING AFTER HIM, PROPOSING A VERY SIGNIFICANT CANDIDATE, A COLLEGE PRESIDENT, TO RUN AGAINST HIM WHO ALSO HAPPENS TO BE WHITE. SO ALL OF THAT MAKES FOR A VERY DRAMATIC AND VERY GOOD STORY, SO WE COVER IT.

JESS>> BUT HERE ARE TWO MEN WHO HAVE A LOT OF MONEY, HAVE A GREAT INTEREST CLEARLY IN EDUCATION. BOTH HAVE DEVOTED A GOOD BIT OF THEIR TIME TO IT. IF THEY DIDN’T SPEND THEIR MONEY THAT WAY, PEOPLE WOULD SAY WHY DON’T YOU PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS, AND INDEED THEY ARE.

FERNANDO GUERRA>> AND I’M VERY AMBIVALENT ABOUT THIS IN BOTH WAYS. I WANT PEOPLE LIKE RIORDAN AND BROAD AND OTHER BUSINESS TYPES TO BE INVOLVED AND ENGAGED IN OUR CIVIC LIFE. WE NEED TO INCREASE OUR ABILITY TO PRODUCE A GOOD EDUCATION SYSTEM. IN FACT, SOME HAVE ARGUED THAT PART OF THE REASON THAT SCHOOLS DECLINED WAS THE DISENGAGEMENT OF BUSINESS AND PART OF THE REFORM EFFORTS THAT ARE GOING ON NOT ONLY IN THE CITY, BUT THE STATE AND NATIONWIDE IS BECAUSE BUSINESS HAS RE-ENGAGED AND THEY’VE SEEN THE NEED TO HAVE GOOD STUDENTS COME OUT OF THAT SYSTEM. SO WE WANT THEM INVOLVED, BUT HOW THEY GET INVOLVED CAUSES PROBLEMS.

NOW TO BE FAIR WITH THEM, THEY ARE PROPOSING TEN MILLION DOLLARS TO OCCIDENTAL COLLEGE AND IT’S NOT SOMETHING UNUSUAL FOR RIORDAN, WHO ONCE SAT ON THE OCCIDENTAL BOARD OF TRUSTEES, FOR BROAD, WHO HAS GIVEN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS. IT IS SOMETHING THAT THEY DO. SO IT’S NOT TEN MILLION DOLLARS FOR THE CAMPAIGN. IT’S TEN MILLION DOLLARS FOR AN INSTITUTION OF HIGHER LEARNING THAT’S VERY SIGNIFICANT IN LOS ANGELES, OCCIDENTAL COLLEGE.

JESS>> APPARENTLY, THEY THOUGHT TEN MILLION DOLLARS WOULD PERSUADE THE BOARD AT OCCIDENTAL THAT IT WAS OKAY FOR THEIR PRESIDENT TO SPEND HIS TIME RUNNING FOR SCHOOL BOARD?

FERNANDO GUERRA>> WELL, YOU KNOW, I THINK THAT WAS A BAD IDEA. NUMBER ONE, THERE’S NO WAY A COLLEGE PRESIDENT COULD AFFORD THE TIME. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION IS THEORETICALLY PART-TIME, IT’S REALLY A FULL-TIME POSITION AND YOU WOULD ALMOST HAVE TO GIVE UP MORE THAN HALF OF YOUR GOOD WORK TIME AT THE COLLEGE. YOU KNOW, TED MITCHELL WAS SELECTED TO RUN THAT COLLEGE FIRST AND FOREMOST. MANY CEO’S SIT ON BOARDS, BUT THEY’RE MORE ADVISORY BOARDS. THIS IS A VERY HANDS-ON TYPE OF BOARD, SO THAT’S A VERY DIFFICULT THING TO DO.

THE OTHER THING THAT I KIND OF QUESTION STRATEGICALLY POLITICALLY IS THAT I’M NOT SURE TED MITCHELL CAN WIN THAT RACE. I THINK IF IT’S TED MITCHELL AND TOKOFSKY, TOKOFSKY WINS IN THAT DISTRICT. YOU KNOW, IT IS A HEAVILY-LATINO DISTRICT. IT’S PROBABLY THE MOST LATINO DISTRICT OF ANY POLITICAL JURISDICTION. IT’S ABOUT OVER SIXTY-SOME-ODD PERCENT LATINO VOTER REGISTRATION, SIXTY-SIX PERCENT VOTED FOR VILLARAIGOSA IN MARCH, ABOUT SEVENTY-FOUR PERCENT VOTED AGAINST PROPOSITION 209, SIXTY-THREE PERCENT VOTED AGAINST 187.

IT’S A VERY LIBERAL LATINO DISTRICT, SO TOKOFSKY IS GOING TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME. THIS IS A GUY THAT BARELY WON THE LAST TWO TIMES, BUT HE’S DONE AN INCREDIBLE JOB AND IT’S VERY IMPORTANT FOR LOS ANGELES THAT WE HAVE PEOPLE LIKE TOKOFSKY BECAUSE IT’S SHOWN THAT THE LATINO ELECTORATE IS WILLING TO VOTE FOR SOMEBODY LIKE HIM IF HE DOES A GOOD JOB. THAT’S WHAT THIS ELECTION WILL BE ABOUT, WHETHER HE’S DOING A GOOD JOB FOR THOSE CONSTITUENTS.

JESS>> IT’LL BE AN INTERESTING ONE TO WATCH. OUR THANKS TO FERNANDO GUERRA FROM THE CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF LOS ANGELES. THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING WITH US.

FERNANDO GUERRA>> WELL, THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

JESS>> TOMORROW ON LIFE AND TIMES, THE STORY OF TWO PARENTS FROM ISRAEL. THEY’VE BOTH LOST CHILDREN TO THE VIOLENCE THERE. NOW THEY’VE JOINED FORCES ON A MISSION OF PEACE.

>> WE HAVE LOST OUR KIDS AND WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REVENGE OR ANY HATRED. WE WANT TO ACHIEVE RECONCILIATION AND PEACE AND THIS IS OUR POWER AND THIS IS OUR BELIEFS THAT THAT’S HOW IT’S GOING TO BE.

JESS>> IT GOES WITH THE TERRITORY WHEN YOU LIVE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WE ALL REMEMBER THE REALLY BIG EARTHQUAKES, ONE SUCH AS THE NORTHRIDGE QUAKE BACK IN 1994.

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JESS>> THE NORTHRIDGE QUAKE CAUSED A RECORD AMOUNT OF DAMAGE, BUT EXPERTS SAY THAT’S NOTHING COMPARED TO WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IN THE NEXT BIG EARTHQUAKE AND SOME SAY THE RECENT JOLT IN ALASKA COULD BE A PREVIEW OF COMING ATTRACTIONS FOR US. JOINING US NOW IS THOMAS HEATON. HE IS PROFESSOR OF ENGINEERING SEISMOLOGY AT CAL TECH IN PASADENA. DO YOU SUBSCRIBE TO ANY LINK BETWEEN THE ALASKAN EARTHQUAKE AND WHAT THEY’RE TELLING US NOW COULD BE A BIG ONE ON THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT, PARTICULARLY IN THE INLAND EMPIRE, PALM SPRINGS, THAT AREA AND ALSO THE BAY AREA OF SAN FRANCISCO?

THOMAS HEATON>> WELL, IT’S VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE ALASKAN EARTHQUAKE WOULD ACTUALLY TRIGGER AN EARTHQUAKE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT I THINK THE LINK IS THAT THE ALASKAN EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED ON A FAULT THAT HAS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT AND THE NATURE OF THE SHAKING IN ALASKA WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE MIGHT EXPECT IN CALIFORNIA. OF COURSE, THE BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT ALASKA DIDN’T HAVE A CITY ABOVE THE EARTHQUAKE FAULT.

JESS>> TRUE. IS THERE ANY EARTHQUAKE FAULT THAT HAS BEEN MORE STUDIED THAN THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT?

THOMAS HEATON>> NONE THAT I’M AWARE OF. PROBABLY THE SAN ANDREAS IS THE BEST KNOWN FAULT IN THE WORLD.

JESS>> AND IN ONE OF THE RECENT STUDIES, IT SUGGESTS THAT IT IS DUE FOR A QUAKE, A FAIRLY LARGE ONE, SEVEN PERHAPS OR ABOVE. THAT CLEARLY IS A MAJOR QUAKE, IS IT NOT?

THOMAS HEATON>> WELL, THERE ARE SOME STUDIES THAT HAVE COME OUT LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS OF EARTHQUAKES THAT HAVE HAPPENED IN THE LAST ONE THOUSAND YEARS. IT GIVES US A MUCH BETTER IDEA OF HOW OFTEN LARGE EARTHQUAKES OCCUR ON THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT. SOME HAVE SUGGESTED IT’S BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST EARTHQUAKE, ESPECIALLY ON THE SEGMENT RUNNING SOUTH FROM CAJON PASS TO THE SOUTH, THAT WE MAY BE OVERDUE. BUT TO BE HONEST, AS HUMAN BEINGS, WAITING AROUND FOR EARTHQUAKES CAN BE PRETTY BORING STUFF. IT MAY BE TOMORROW, BUT IT MAY BE FIFTY YEARS FROM NOW OR IT MIGHT EVEN BE A HUNDRED YEARS FROM NOW. WE HAVE NO WAY OF SAYING.

JESS>> PERHAPS TO OVERSIMPLIFY, I GUESS WHAT WE’RE DOING IS WE’LL SAY, OKAY, THERE WAS A SIZEABLE QUAKE ON THAT FAULT, HAS BEEN THROUGHOUT HISTORY, EVERY, WHAT, SEVENTY-FIVE YEARS? SO IN THE NEXT SEVENTY-FIVE YEARS, YOU’VE GOT TO HAVE ONE?

THOMAS HEATON>> WELL, SOME PEOPLE ARE ARGUING THAT, BECAUSE THE STRAIN IS BUILDING ON THE FAULT, IT MUST BE RELIEVED BEFORE IT GETS TOO HIGH A LEVEL. I THINK THAT WAS A VERY POPULAR VIEW IN SEISMOLOGY MAYBE FIFTEEN OR TWENTY YEARS AGO. BUT THE MORE WE’VE STUDIED EARTHQUAKE FAULTS, THE MORE SURPRISED WE’VE BECOME IN TRYING TO UNDERSTAND EXACTLY HOW THE PHYSICS OF THE SLIDING PROCESS WORKS. WE’RE DISCOVERING THAT IT’S FAR MORE COMPLEX THAN WE EVER DREAMT. EVEN THOUGH THE STRAIN IS BUILDING VERY STEADILY, THE TIMING BETWEEN WHEN THE EARTHQUAKES HAPPEN SEEMS TO BE VERY IRREGULAR.

JESS>> AND THE NOTION WE HELD FOR SOME TIME THAT SMALL EARTHQUAKES REDUCE THE STRAIN AND THUS MADE IT LESS LIKELY THAT WE’D HAVE A MAJOR QUAKE, THAT’S PROVED TO BE MYTH, HUH?

THOMAS HEATON>> THAT IS DEFINITELY A MYTH. HAVING MANY SMALLER QUAKES, IN FACT, IS A TIME OF HIGHER HAZARD. THERE’S ALWAYS SOME CHANCE THAT ONE OF THOSE SMALLER QUAKES WILL GROW INTO A LARGE ONE. CERTAINLY WHEN THE PLATES MOVE PAST EACH OTHER, IT’S ONLY IN THE VERY LARGE EARTHQUAKES THAT WE GET ANY APPRECIABLE MOTION ON THE PLATE BOUNDARY. THOSE LARGE EARTHQUAKES ARE THE MAIN ACTORS IN THE PLATE MOTION AND, WITHOUT THEM, WE WOULDN’T HAVE PLATE TECTONICS.

JESS>> AND, OF COURSE, THE ULTIMATE QUESTION THAT YOU HAVE BEEN ASKED PERHAPS THOUSANDS OF TIMES IS WHEN ARE WE GOING TO BE ABLE TO PREDICT EARTHQUAKES. WILL WE EVER?

THOMAS HEATON>> WELL, WE CERTAINLY CAN’T DO IT NOW. THE MORE WE’VE LEARNED ABOUT EARTHQUAKES, EVERYTHING WE’VE LEARNED IS TELLING US THAT THIS PROBLEM IS FAR MORE DIFFICULT THAN WE EVER DREAMED AND A NUMBER OF US BELIEVE THAT IT’S UNLIKELY WE’LL DO IT IN OUR LIFETIME.

JESS>> AND WE’VE BEEN WATCHING THE PARKLAND AREA SINCE, WHAT, 1988 WHEN THEY SAID A BIG ONE WAS DUE THAT YEAR AND IT’S YET TO HAPPEN?

THOMAS HEATON>> (LAUGHTER) THAT’S CORRECT. AS I SAY, YOU CAN GET PRETTY BORED WAITING AROUND FOR AN EARTHQUAKE TO HAPPEN.

JESS>> BUT CONSIDERING THE NUMBER OF SEISMOLOGICAL INSTRUMENTS YOU HAVE SCATTERED AROUND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WE ARE LEARNING MORE EACH DAY ABOUT EARTHQUAKES, ARE WE NOT?

THOMAS HEATON>> OH, WE’RE MAKING TREMENDOUS PROGRESS IN TERMS OF UNDERSTANDING HOW THE GROUND IS ACCUMULATING STRAIN, IN TERMS OF HOW THE WAVES TRAVEL FROM EARTHQUAKE FAULTS AND HOW THEY DAMAGE BUILDINGS. OUR KNOWLEDGE BASE HAS REALLY MADE GREAT PROGRESS.

JESS>> IS THAT KNOWLEDGE BASE BEING TRANSLATED INTO SAFER STRUCTURES BEING CONSTRUCTED NOW?

THOMAS HEATON>> WELL, THAT’S A VERY TOUCHY SUBJECT, BUT IN MY OPINION, WE’RE NOT DOING NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE SHOULD BE DOING TO LOOK AT THE SAFETY OF OUR STRUCTURES. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF STRUCTURES THAT ARE RECOGNIZED BY PROFESSIONALS THAT COULD BE VERY DANGEROUS IN EARTHQUAKES AND MOST OCCUPANTS OF BUILDINGS THAT ARE DANGEROUS ARE UNAWARE OF THAT.

JESS>> IN A REPORT RECENTLY THAT A TRENCH IN THE WRIGHTWOOD AREA OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN STUDIED NOW FOR ABOUT TEN YEARS. IT GOES DEEP ENOUGH TO GO BACK EONS ALMOST TO WHEN WE HAD EARLY EARTHQUAKES. WHAT’S THE VALUE OF THAT?

THOMAS HEATON>> WELL, IT GIVES US A LONG HISTORY OF SEEING WHAT THE RATE OF MOTION ON THE SAN ANDREAS IS. IS IT REGULAR OR IS IT IRREGULAR? IT APPEARS THAT IT’S FAIRLY IRREGULAR. SOMETIMES THERE CAN BE TWO EARTHQUAKES JUST TENS OF YEARS APART AND SOMETIMES THE EARTHQUAKES ARE HUNDREDS OF YEARS APART.

JESS>> AND WE’LL HOPE FOR ANOTHER YEARS. THOMAS HEATON FROM CAL TECH, THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING WITH US TONIGHT.

LIFEANDTIMES@KCET.ORG
WWW.KCET.ORG
LIFE AND TIMES TONIGHT
4401 SUNSET BLVD.
LOS ANGELES, CA 90027
(323) 953-5555

JESS>> TONIGHT WE TAKE A TRIP TO A REMARKABLE PLACE, THE RAMIREZ CANYON PARK IN MALIBU. IT IS NOW STATE PROPERTY, BUT THE PARK WAS ONCE CALLED THE STREISAND RANCH. BARBRA STREISAND OWNED IT FOR NEARLY TWENTY YEARS AND TRANSFORMED THE PROPERTY INTO A SHOWPLACE. IT INCLUDES A HOUSE THAT WILL LEAVE ART DECO FANS DROOLING. AS VAL ZAVALA TELLS US, THE PLACE ISN’T EASY TO FIND, BUT IT’S WORTH IT WHEN YOU GET THERE.

VAL ZAVALA>> WIND DOWN A NARROW CANYON ROAD OFF OF PCH. NO HONKING, PLEASE, THE NEIGHBORS DON’T LIKE NOISE. IN A MILE OR TWO, YOU’LL ENTER RAMIREZ CANYON PARK. IT’S MORE THAN A PARK. IT’S A TWENTY-TWO ACRE COMPOUND THAT USED TO BELONG TO BARBRA STREISAND AND HER THEN HUSBAND, STUDIO CHIEF JON PETERS. DRIVE THROUGH THE GATES AND YOU’LL FEEL LIKE YOU’RE IN A STORYBOOK.

IT ALL STARTED ON VALENTINE’S DAY BACK IN 1974. THAT’S WHEN STREISAND AND PETERS BOUGHT THIS HOME. WELL, IT DIDN’T LOOK LIKE THIS. IT WAS A DULL LITTLE STUCCO HOUSE THAT THEY RENOVATED - SLIGHTLY. THEY DUBBED THIS HOME “THE BARN” AND IT WAS STREISAND’S FAVORITE. OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS, AS ADJACENT PROPERTIES BECAME AVAILABLE, STREISAND SNAPPED THEM UP. BUT WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE CROWN JEWEL OF THE PARK IS THIS: THE DECO HOUSE. I GOT A TOUR FROM OUTREACH COORDINATOR, JOAN PANKRANTZ.

JOAN PANKRANTZ>> THIS IS THE ONLY POOL ON THE PROPERTY. IT’S A BLACK-BOTTOM POOL.

VAL ZAVALA>> IT’S GORGEOUS.

JOAN PANKRANTZ>> ISN’T THAT GORGEOUS? THIS FURNITURE HERE IS ORIGINAL, LEFT BY MS. STREISAND. YOU WILL NOTICE ACROSS THE TOP THERE, THAT DESIGN. THAT WAS TAKEN FROM PANELS FROM THE ATLANTIC-RICHFIELD BUILDING WHICH WAS GOING TO BE DEMOLISHED IN 1968. IT WAS AN ART DECO BUILDING AND MS. STREISAND GOT THOSE PANELS AND, FROM THOSE PANELS, GOT THE DESIGN YOU SEE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE HOUSE.

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JOAN PANKRANTZ>> THIS IS ORIGINAL, THIS BEAUTIFUL TABLE. THE CHANDELIER IS ORIGINAL. ISN’T THAT GORGEOUS? AND IN ART DECO, YOU SEE A LOT OF STEP DESIGNS. YOU’RE GOING TO SEE IT THROUGHOUT THE HOUSE LIKE THIS DOORWAY HERE INTO THE DINING ROOM, THE STEP DESIGN? EVEN THE CHANDELIER. THE DETAIL ON THE CEILING HERE IS IN THE STEP DESIGN. AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE UPHOLSTERED WALLS OF THE DINING ROOM. WE’RE IN A TILE ROOM. THESE ARE UPHOLSTERED, SO THAT HELPS WITH THE ACOUSTICS AND ALSO, AS YOU LOOK AT THE WALL COVERING, YOU SEE THAT SAME DESIGN THROUGHOUT THE FABRIC.

VAL ZAVALA>> STREISAND EVEN TILED THE FLOOR TO MATCH THE RUG SO THAT, WHEN THE RUG WAS SENT OUT FOR CLEANING, THE DESIGN WOULD REMAIN IN THE TILE.

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VAL ZAVALA>> NOW THIS IS THE FORMAL ENTRANCE RIGHT HERE?

JOAN PANKRANTZ>> YES, IT IS. YES, IT IS.

VAL ZAVALA>> NOW THIS IS WHAT YOU SEE WHEN YOU FIRST WALK IN? THIS IS BEAUTIFUL.

JOAN PANKRANTZ>> WHEN YOU FIRST WALK IN, THIS IS WHAT YOU SEE.

VAL ZAVALA>> AND IT’S THE LARGEST HOME, YOU SAY, ON THE PROPERTY?

JOAN PANKRANTZ>> IT’S THE LARGEST HOME ON THE PROPERTY. IT’S OVER FOUR THOUSAND SQUARE FEET.

VAL ZAVALA>> THE ONLY COLORS ALLOWED IN THE HOUSE WERE BURGUNDY, GRAY, BLACK AND ROSE. EVEN THE CANDY WRAPPERS HAD TO MATCH.

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JOAN PANKRANTZ>> THIS IS THE MASTER BEDROOM AND I LOVE TO BRING PEOPLE IN HERE. THIS IS NOT PART OF THE TOUR REGULARLY BECAUSE I LOVE TO SEE THEIR EXPRESSIONS. IT’S INCREDIBLE.

VAL ZAVALA>> SHE LIKES -- WHAT IS THIS COLOR? PINK? MAUVE? BURGUNDY?

JOAN PANKRANTZ>> OH, I DON’T KNOW. IT’S A PINK.

VAL ZAVALA>> BUT SHE NEVER STAYED HERE?

JOAN PANKRANTZ>> NOT THAT WE KNOW OF. I DON’T KNOW, I DON’T KNOW.

VAL ZAVALA>> MAYBE SHE SNEAKED IN FOR A NIGHT (LAUGHTER).

JOAN PANKRANTZ>> (LAUGHTER) MAYBE. EVERYTHING IS AUTOMATIC, STATE OF THE ART.

VAL ZAVALA>> YES, THAT CEILING ALONE.

JOAN PANKRANTZ>> I HAVE TO TELL YOU, VAL, THAT IN THE 1920’S, THAT’S WHEN THE OCEAN LINERS STARTED AND YOU REALLY GET A NAUTICAL FEELING HERE. YOU LOOK AT THE PORTHOLE WINDOWS AND THE SKYLIGHTS. THIS IS ALL HAND-PAINTED. THIS ISN’T WALLPAPER. I THOUGHT AT ONE POINT THAT WAS WALLPAPER, BUT THAT HAS ALL BEEN HAND-PAINTED ON THERE.

[FILM CLIP]

VAL ZAVALA>> THIS IS WHAT REPORTERS DO WHEN THE TOUR GUIDE’S NOT AROUND. FOR STREISAND, A COLLECTION IS LIKE A MOVIE. ONCE IT’S DONE, IT’S DONE AND SHE MOVED ON TO OTHER INTERESTS. SHE AUCTIONED OFF HER ART DECO COLLECTION IN 1994 FOR MORE THAN SIX MILLION DOLLARS. AS FOR THE PROPERTY, SHE DONATED IT TO THE STATE IN 1993. NOW IT’S RUN BY THE MOUNTAINS RECREATION CONSERVATION AUTHORITY WHO MUST KEEP IT SELF-SUSTAINING AND OPEN TO THE PUBLIC. TODAY A GROUP OF SENIORS FROM THE CAPRI RETIREMENT HOME IN NEWHALL HAS MADE THE ONE-HOUR BUS TRIP TO RAMIREZ CANYON PARK.

TAMAR FREEMAN>> HELLO, I’M TAMAR. WELCOME. THIS OUTING THAT WE’RE ENJOYING HERE IS PART OF OUR SENIOR OUTREACH PROGRAM AND IT’S MADE AVAILABLE TO PEOPLE WHO WOULD OTHERWISE NOT HAVE ACCESS TO THIS BEAUTIFUL, BEAUTIFUL BALANCE OF NATURE.

>> IT’S SO RELAXING. THE MINUTE WE GOT HERE, I JUST PRACTICALLY OOZED RELAXATION. I THINK IT’S A WONDERFUL PLACE TO LIVE.

>> IT’S BEAUTIFUL. THE PATIO IS GORGEOUS. OUR LUNCH WAS DELICIOUS AND THE FRESH AIR AND THE SUNSHINE WAS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO DESCRIBE.

>> IT REMINDS ME A LITTLE BIT OF SOME OF THE ONES I SAW ON THE ISLANDS.

VAL ZAVALA>> WHAT ISLANDS ARE THOSE?

>> IN THE PACIFIC ISLANDS. THERE ARE MANY PACIFIC ISLANDS I WENT TO, GUAM, SAIPAN, ALL OF THEM DURING THE WAR.

VAL ZAVALA>> THE PARK IS ACCESSIBLE TO SENIORS AND TO THE DISABLED. THE MORE ADVENTUROUS OPT FOR A TOUR OF THE MEADOW.

JOAN PANKRANTZ>> THIS IS WHERE THE ONE-VOICE CONCERT WAS PERFORMED IN 1986 AND IT WAS A PBS SPECIAL. THERE WAS A FULL ORCHESTRA HERE, FIVE HUNDRED GUESTS, IT WAS A CATERED DINNER AND MONEY WAS RAISED FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. THAT WAS 1986.

VAL ZAVALA>> THE PARK HAS TO RAISE ITS OWN REVENUE, SO THEY HOST WEDDINGS, EVENTS AND SMALL MEETINGS TO GENERATE INCOME, BUT ON A DAY LIKE TODAY, WHAT THEY’RE REALLY GENERATING ARE MEMORIES. HOW DOES IT MAKE YOU FEEL TO SIT OUT HERE LIKE THIS?

>> PRETTY INDEPENDENT.

>> IT’S GORGEOUS. WHY DID SHE EVER LEAVE HERE? (LAUGHTER)

>> OUR HOSTS AND HOSTESSES WERE JUST WONDERFUL. HAVE TO COME BACK SOON.

JESS>> AND THAT EXPLAINS VAL’S ABSENCE FROM THIS BROADCAST TONIGHT. SHE’S HANGING OUT LOUNGING IN THE TUB AT BARBRA STREISAND’S HOUSE. IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT MORE ABOUT RAMIREZ CANYON PARK AND ITS TOURS AND OUTREACH PROGRAMS, CALL THE NUMBER ON YOUR SCREEN OR GO TO THEIR WEBSITE. THEIR WEBSITE IS SMMC.CA.GOV. YOU’LL NEED TO CLICK ON “PARK LISTINGS”.

AND AS ALWAYS, YOU CAN KEEP TRACK OF ALL THE LATEST NEWS BY LOGGING ONTO KCET.ORG. THAT IS TONIGHT’S PROGRAM. NOW FOR ALL OF US HERE AT LIFE AND TIMES, THANK YOU AND HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

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