05/03/04

LC040503

Val Zavala>> Tonight on Life and Times --

Good science or coincidence? Two earthquake predictions came
true. Should we be nervous about the third?

John Vidale>> The prediction is that in a large area in
southeastern California there will be a magnitude 6.4 or greater
earthquake before September 5.

Val>> And then, should Native-Americans have to share the
wealth from tribal casinos? Plus, splendor in the glass. A
penthouse with exquisite detail by Lalique.

It's all ahead on tonight's Life and Times.

Life and Times is made possible through the generous support of
the L.K. Whittier Foundation dedicated to improving the quality
of life by supporting innovative endeavors in the fields of
medicine, health, science and education.

Val>> Living here in Southern California, all of us have
occasionally thought about "The Big One". Fortunately, it
hasn't hit yet, but we're also familiar with the legend, the one
that says "Giant quake hits California and shears off part of
our coast." But could that really happen? Hollywood has its
own ideas and has crafted what may be the ultimate disaster
movie set right here on the West Coast. But as Toni Guinyard
reports, with earthquakes, there's a giant gap between science
fiction and science fact.

[Film Clip]

Toni Guinyard>> Hollywood's depiction of what will happen when
"The Big One" hits is often exaggerated, but this is the real
thing.

[Film Clip]

Toni Guinyard>> Seismologists spend a lot of time observing,
monitoring and analyzing what happens before, during and after
an earthquake. They can tell you why earthquakes happen.

Lucy Jones>> Fault is always stressed. It's the moment at
which it finishes slipping.

Toni Guinyard>> They can tell you how they happen.

Lucy Jones>> It's actually a lot like snapping your fingers.
When we slip on the fault, a wave travels out and makes the
ground vibrate under your house.

Toni Guinyard>> But there is still a lot they don't know. They
can't tell you when and where the next earthquake is going to
take place.

Lucy Jones>> What we're really wanting is to predict which one
will be big, so we're wanting to predict the magnitude of a
future earthquake. There's not, as far as we can tell,
something special that only happens before big earthquakes and
not before small ones.

Toni Guinyard>> The NBC television miniseries, "10.5", is the
latest version casting an earthquake in a leading role, disaster
as entertainment.

Howard Braunstein>> This film will fill a need and people will
have fun with it as a big old time disaster picture. It's
entertaining. It's a ride and hopefully people will go on it.

John Lafia>> We're trying to show the worst case scenario of an
earthquake in Southern California in the entire West Coast area.

Lucy Jones>> "10.5" is complete science fantasy. It has
nothing to do with anything we know about earthquakes. As long
as people remember that, they can enjoy it if they can
(laughter).

Toni Guinyard>> Lucy Jones is the U.S. Geological Survey
scientist in charge of Southern California. She is also a
member of the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation
Council. The council has been busy in large part because of
earthquake predictions made by UCLA Professor Dr. Vladimir
Keilis-Borok.

Lucy Jones>> The first one was for a magnitude 7 or greater in
a very large area of northern Japan, which was fulfilled by a
magnitude 8.1, the Hokkaido earthquake in September. The second
one was for a very large area of central California, which was
fulfilled by the magnitude 6.5, San Simeon earthquake.

Toni Guinyard>> The professor and his international research
team were able to accurately predict two earthquakes would take
place months rather than years before they happened.

Lucy Jones>> So when we look at this and say he's gotten two
right, that's a good start. It is not enough to tell us whether
or not he's right because the approach is fundamentally
statistical. The fact is, earthquakes happen a lot, a lot more
than many people realize, and the random chance of success is
clearly there.

John Vidale>> One has to be very careful before thinking a
prediction is successful, though I think one or two more
successful predictions and it will be clear that there is
something in this new method.

Toni Guinyard>> Professor John Vidale is Interim Director of
the UCLA Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics. The
earthquake predictions put a spotlight on seismic research being
done at the campus. The topic has become the subject of a
lively discussion and debate.

John Vidale>> Well, I was skeptical and I am still somewhat
skeptical. The chance of each prediction coming true at random
would have been out about one in ten, so when they have two
correct predictions in a row, that could still happen by chance.
Over the years, many people have tried to predict earthquakes.

Toni Guinyard>> Another prediction has already been made.

John Vidale>> The prediction is that, in a large area in
southeastern California, there will be a magnitude 6.4 or
greater earthquake before September 5.

Toni Guinyard>> The professor emphasizes the prediction is for
a fifty-fifty chance an earthquake will happen in the California
desert before September 5.

John Vidale>> We're worried that people will misinterpret the
statement to mean that September 5 is a particularly dangerous
day. In fact, September 5 is no more dangerous than any day
that went before it, according to the model, and in fact it's
probably a little less dangerous because as time passes without
an earthquake, it's more likely that the prediction is not
right.

Toni Guinyard>> Lucy Jones points out that the earthquake
prediction not only covers a vast area, ten to twelve thousand
square miles, it is also defined by a number of earthquake
faults.

Lucy Jones>> We have the San Andreas fault that runs along
here, the San Ysidro fault that runs along here, the Altama
fault, Banning fault. All of those are very big. Dozens of
faults up to here. The San Bernardino Mountains regularly have
magnitude 5's all the time. We've seen several 6's and 7's on
these small hills out here through the desert. All of those are
possible candidates that would be a success under this
prediction.

John Vidale>> Well, the concept is to look at the history of
earthquakes in an area and look for various symptoms that might
indicate that the ground is so stressed that it might be on the
verge of breaking in a large earthquake.

Toni Guinyard>> The prediction theory is based on four
indicators.

John Vidale>> One indication is if the seismicity has been
rising recently so more earthquakes recently than in the more
distant past. Another symptom is if the moderate sized
earthquakes have more aftershocks than usual. A third symptom
is if the seismicity will rise over a broad region, not just in
a few places. The fourth concept is that there will be fewer
little earthquakes for each bigger earthquake, so the mix of big
and little earthquakes will shift, indicating that perhaps the
bigger earthquake is coming.

Toni Guinyard>> A big earthquake, perhaps not "The Big One",
but one with a magnitude great enough to cause damage.

Lucy Jones>> This isn't going to give us that holy grail of
something that's really going to make a difference in how people
respond to earthquakes, but it will tell us there is information
in the earth about how big an earthquake will be before it
happens and this will be the first time we can say that.

Toni Guinyard>> So as you watch Hollywood's version of "The Big
One" on TV, consider this:

John Vidale>> You know, Superman flies around the earth and
turns back time to undo earthquakes in other movies, and it's
clearly not true. That would never happen, a 10.5 earthquake in
California.

Toni Guinyard>> Why not?

John Vidale>> Well, the biggest earthquake we've ever seen in
the last fifty years, 1960, it was a magnitude 9.5. So these
faults like the San Andreas in California, even though they're
pretty long, they're only ten or twenty kilometers deep and
they're just not that big. Even if the whole San Andreas broke
from Mexico most of the way up to Oregon, it would still only
probably be at most a magnitude 8.5 earthquake.

Lucy Jones>> I don't believe any scientists were harmed or
consulted in the making of this movie (laughter).

Toni Guinyard>> Entertainment may take center stage for the
moment, but the science behind the prediction of earthquakes is
getting its share of attention.

Lucy Jones>> If somebody could actually do it, we'd love it. I
mean, science is prediction and anything that advances that is
an excitement.

Val>> So far, the Northridge earthquake has been the most
costly natural disaster ever to hit California. It's been more
than ten years and some homeowners are still putting together
their houses and their lives.

Kcet.org is the place to look for the very latest on Life and
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Val>> The fortunes are huge and a lot of people, including the
governor, would like to get a piece of the action. We're
talking about Indian casinos. But just how is all that casino
cash changing the lives of California's Native-American tribes?
For the Pechangas in Riverside County, the money started flowing
when they opened their casino on the edge of Temecula. Now
they're rich and, as Philip Bruce reports, the tribe has a
simple business strategy: no partnership with the white man.

Philip Bruce>> For the Pechanga Indian tribe, this is the sound
of money. Ever since their new casino opened near Temecula,
it's had no trouble drawing customers. The casino also includes
a convention center, a theater and a thirteen-story five
hundred-room hotel.

Patrick Murphy>> This project has been very successful. It
hasn't stopped since day one. Our market is primarily from Los
Angeles and Orange Counties and we've reached down into San
Diego County. It's been tremendous.

Philip Bruce>> The casino is owned and operated entirely by
members of the Pechanga tribe and, unlike some other Indian
casinos in California, there are no outside partners involved.
In short, no white men to siphon off part of the tribe's riches.

Butch Murphy>> We don't answer to any outside entity. I think
it's really gratifying for the tribe. We don't answer to them
either through policy or through monetary compensation.

Philip Bruce>> Tribal council member, Butch Murphy, has watched
the Pechangas' fortunes improve going back to the mid-1990's
when they first got into the gaming business. That's when the
tribe brought in eight trailers and set up its first casino.
Before long, they were successfully running several other
businesses, including a gasoline station and an RV park. It's a
far different world from the one Murphy remembers when he was
growing up on the reservation. Back then, his was one of only
five or six families still living here.

Butch Murphy>> There were a lot of open spaces, you know, to
run around in as i recall and, once in a while, you'd see
somebody that was out of place, if you will, that wasn't around
all the time. I can remember scrambling back to the house
because we were so excited, i suppose, as well as scared of this
new person that showed up.

Philip Bruce>> When he finished high school, Murphy left the
reservation for college and eventually became a teacher.

Butch Murphy>> I grew up for eighteen years in a home that had
no electricity and no running water. I have told that story to
a lot of students that have been in the classes that I've
taught. It really draws a blank look. I can recall one time,
one instance, in explaining that to one of my students. He
looked up at me and, in all seriousness, said, "But, Mr. Murphy,
how do you watch TV?"

Philip Bruce>> Today, with the development of the Temecula
Valley and the casino itself, there are upwards of five hundred
tribal members living on the reservation and it's probably safe
to say that all of them have electricity, running water and at
least one TV.

Butch Murphy>> we have absolutely not one single tribal member
on welfare. It's no small secret, I think, that peoples' lives
have definitely been changed. Certainly, I've seen it. You
know, I've seen it as a tribal council person. You see smiles
on peoples' faces now and you see them driving nicer cars and
wearing nicer clothes. It's great.

Philip Bruce>> The new-found wealth has also let the tribal
government develop programs and facilities on the reservation.
There's a large new government center along with a fire station
and a large park with tennis, basketball and handball courts, as
well as a softball field. There's also a new health program,
along with a senior citizens center and an educational center.
Plus there are cultural and language preservation efforts. The
list goes on and the benefits have gone to more than just tribal
members. But when the casino was first planned, many in
Temecula were wary.

Jeff Stone>> We had some strong concerns. We were basically
scared, but we were also ignorant of some of the benefits that
the Pechanga casino would ultimately bring to the citizens. So
it was a political roller coaster, basically, until they got
built and that's when the relationship really started to improve
between the Pechangas and the city of Temecula.

Philip Bruce>> Now Temecula officials know that visitors to the
casino are likely to spend money in the city as well.

Jeff Stone>> That derives millions of dollars a year in
potential revenue for the city. But in addition to that, the
Pechanga tribe has been very careful to try to spend whatever
money they can locally here, to our local vendors.

Philip Bruce>> Then there are the jobs. The tribe has 2,600
employees and a good ninety-five percent of them aren't tribal
members. So far, it's been a huge boost to the surrounding
community.

Butch Murphy>> For example, our local high schools, five high
schools, in fact, from Lake Elsinore to the Temecula Valley get
an upwards of $100,000 a year from us and have for the last
three years.

Philip Bruce>> But as Indian gaming has grown, the business has
drawn critics. There's no denying that gaming interests have
hired powerful lobbyists at the state and national levels and
the tribes are major donors to political campaigns. But Murphy
wonders why anyone thinks there's something wrong with all of
this.

Butch Murphy>> I don't think that there should be anything
wrong with Indians making money. There shouldn't be anything
wrong with Indians having lobbyists in Washington, D.C. or, in
our case, in Sacramento. There shouldn't be anything wrong with
Indians getting involved in the political system of this country
and, if there is, why?

Philip Bruce>> Murphy claims Indian gaming is about more than
just money and power.

Butch Murphy>> It isn't just about making a buck. It's about
being able to diversify. It's about being able to buy back
tribal lands that were taken from us. I mean, for lack of a
better term, they were stolen, and now we're in a position to be
able to buy those properties back right here in this valley, and
good for us for doing that.

Philip Bruce>> One property the Pechangas have recently
purchased is a ranch lying just outside the reservation. There
stands what's believed to be the world's oldest California Live
Oak tree. For Murphy, this is more the issue. Preserving the
past and planning for the lives of the generations to come.

Butch Murphy>> You know, I've got four boys whose lives are
going to be different than what mine was, and I've got
grandchildren whose lives are going to be different. So the
generations to come are the ones who are going to benefit from
the efforts that we're putting forth.

Val>> Since the casino opened, the Pechangas have been locked
in a bitter legal battle over questionable members on the tribal
rolls. It's all about money because each bona fide member of
the tribe stands to gain $10,000 a month from gaming proceeds.

To send a comment or a question to our program, you can reach us
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Val>> This is a time when developers are in the midst of
reinventing downtown Los Angeles, but in the rush toward a grand
new future, it's important not to forget the city's elegant
past. Luckily, part of it is still here and, in this story from
the Life and Times vault, we get a taste of that glorious era
when downtown was "the" place. Patt Morrison is our guide for
this special tour of Los Angeles's historic Oviatt Building.

Patt Morrison>> In 1928, this was the second tallest, but most
exquisite building in downtown Los Angeles. It was the diamond
clasp on the necklace of art deco edifices that stretched out
along Wilshire Boulevard. Here the most elegant men in
Hollywood bought the most beautiful clothes in the west in the
most remarkable building in town, the Oviatt Building.

It was a collaboration between the owner, James Oviatt, and some
of the most accomplished artisans of the jazz age, chief among
them the French artist, Rene Lalique, whose artistry is
everywhere in evidence from the illuminated glass ceilings to
the double doors that now lead into a restaurant, to these
display windows to the haberdashery shop and then, over here,
mailboxes of a metal alloy invented by Lalique himself for these
purposes and, of course, the remarkable elevator doors.

Thank you, Nathan. The man who commissioned and envisioned
this, Mr. Oviatt, well, you could say he lived above the shop,
but that wouldn't begin to explain it. You'll just have to come
up and see it sometime. How about now?

I stepped off the elevator in Paris? London? Wrong. Downtown
Los Angeles. Tom Gilmore is president of the group which owns
this fabulous building and saved it from God knows what terrible
fate.

Tom Gilmore>> Well, we continue to save it. Other people have
helped us save it before we even came on.

Patt Morrison>> Well, walk us through. I know the marble in
the fireplace is from the south of France.

Tom Gilmore>> Yes, it is, and also there's a great -- this is a
wonderful parquet floor that has been designed in the pattern of
a spider web. If you look at it really carefully, you can start
to see it. It's wonderful mixtures of oak and maple and
mahogany and it's really an exceptional floor.

Patt Morrison>> Well, that's a very art deco idea, the spider
web.

Tom Gilmore>> Very, yeah, it's very art deco.

Patt Morrison>> And, of course, all the lighting is by Lalique.
I understand this was the biggest commercial job that Lalique
ever undertook.

Tom Gilmore>> That's absolutely true. I don't think he ever
did anything more --

Patt Morrison>> -- and it isn't just here? It's the whole
building?

Tom Gilmore>> It's the whole building. It's every window in
this apartment. It's the entire marquee of the building right
down below.

[Film Clip]

Patt Morrison>> And this is the marital chamber?

Tom Gilmore>> This is the marital chamber, although I think its
establishment was more as a bachelor chamber and then it was
converted.

Patt Morrison>> Uh-huh, Well, I won't ask the particulars about
that. The burled wood fittings in here, what else? The
beautiful corded silk and tasseled poof and --

Tom Gilmore>> -- you can't call them French doors. I guess
maybe you can, since they're Lalique. All these doors are the
solid Lalique glass doors, both sides, and then the pedestal and
most of the drapery is a reproduction of the original draperies.

Patt Morrison>> The pedestal is simply ornamental?

Tom Gilmore>> Yeah, absolutely.

[Film Clip]

Patt Morrison>> Look at that ceiling.

Tom Gilmore>> That's open to the roof. We have a new cover on
it that protects it, but it's original Lalique skylight.

Patt Morrison>> We've got this metal that Lalique himself
invented called Malacord and this looks like --

Tom Gilmore>> -- this is plaster, carved in place while it's
still freshly wet, and then twenty-five layers of red lacquer on
top of it.

Patt Morrison>> The phrase "no expense spared" comes to mind
(laughter).

Tom Gilmore>> Yeah, comes to mind very heavily here, yeah.

[Film Clip]

Patt Morrison>> This is so beautiful. Look at the
constellations up there, lighted by Lalique. Even the heavens
don't have that advantage.

Tom Gilmore>> I know. Isn't that amazing? All here in the
city.

Patt Morrison>> And this is his hall of fame. These are his
friends and his patrons and his customers and people who --

Tom Gilmore>> -- I think this is where he proved to everyone
that he had the right level of clientele here.

Patt Morrison>> Well, this was the place for Hollywood.

[Film Clip]

Patt Morrison>> If you were to design a bar that said 1920's,
this would be it. You couldn't do any better than this.

Tom Gilmore>> No, and actually, in that case, it would be nicer
if it was cozy for today, but the zebra works really well with
the black and white and it's quite a lovely bar with a huge
Lalique picture atop and also in back.

Patt Morrison>> And this was originally the dining room?

Tom Gilmore>> Right, exactly.

Patt Morrison>> And that was a guest room? It's exceptional
that this was preserved. It's almost a time capsule, this place
up here, that it didn't get vandalized or destroyed and that
things weren't sold off wholesale like the pieces of glass.

[Film Clip]

Patt Morrison>> This was also party central?

Tom Gilmore>> This was very party central.

Patt Morrison>> How many parties did this guy have (laughter)?

Tom Gilmore>> I have a feeling quite a few. I mean, between
1928 and 1965, I think quite a lot happened here.

Patt Morrison>> Now here's the curious Los Angeles thing.
You've got this peculiar wrought iron, --

Tom Gilmore>> Right.

Patt Morrison>> -- Chinese-looking panels, --

Tom Gilmore>> Right.

Patt Morrison>> -- and then Spanish tiles.

Tom Gilmore>> Absolutely.

Patt Morrison>> Wow, how Los Angeles can you get?

Tom Gilmore>> Or all of a sudden, you break into the neon
clock, you know?

Patt Morrison>> And, what do you know, an analog clock.

Tom Gilmore>> Isn't that great? Pre-digital.

Patt Morrison>> This was, what, the oldest Campanili clock in
Los Angeles?

Tom Gilmore>> It's the oldest neon clock in Los Angeles,
period.

Patt Morrison>> It didn't take the advent of Hollywood to set
Los Angeles on the course it would take, the city of mirages, of
hidden treasures. The city of the unexpected, like this pied-a-
terre in the air. The Oviatt Building crowned the downtown
skyline in 1928. Who's to say it couldn't be the Lalique
beacon, albeit the shorter beacon, to light the way to a
downtown revival where, as the song says, everything old is new
again.

Val>> She won a Genius Grant back in 2002, but even before
that, we knew Liza Lou was a one-of-a-kind person and the same
goes for her art. She's an expert at transforming ordinary
things into something special. How did she do it? We'll let
her tell you.

Liza Lou>> Beads are my paints. There's no way to get this
kind of color, luminosity, with regular paint, with pigment.
They are like a three-dimensional incredible color that I
experimented and couldn't find with any other material. The
minute I started using the material, I couldn't go back to
anything else. Everything else looked lackluster to me.

I wanted to make a shrine out of everyday life. You know, I
wanted to make a cathedral kind of experience from what I see
every day. And it was inspired by going to Europe and seeing
incredible cathedrals and things. I wanted to make something
out of this stuff, regular stuff.

[Film Clip]

Liza Lou>> My work is not about beads. It's about the ideas
behind the work, so it's like paint. To say that I use beads
doesn't tell you anything. What tells you something is why does
this person use beads? There's a very specific reason I use
these materials. Making a kitchen was really a piece about
celebrating women's work. It made sense for me to make it out
of beads because it's so labor-intensive, and the kind of work
that women have done throughout the century has been so labor-
intensive without any kind of hoopla at the end. This is my way
of giving that labor a kind of celebration. When I was doing
the dishes in the kitchen, making that and looking through the
windows, I thought what would it be like to look through the
windows and see a tree?

[Film Clip]

Liza Lou>> The back yard, I think, is really a piece about
putting grass inside, only making it the ultimate grass. I
think it's a little bit perverse to put a back yard in the
middle of an art museum. It's probably actually safer to stay
indoors just in terms of the air quality, so this is a perfect
Los Angeles back yard. The kitchen took five years because I
did it by myself and the back yard only took two years. As it
went along, I gave up taking note on how long things took and I
just started to enjoy the process.

It's a tremendous privilege to be able to make art. The work
always starts for me, not about what I'm going to say as much as
it becomes about visually really being curious of what it's
going to look like. It's more about what it's going to look
like to have water rushing out of the sink made out of beads?
That becomes the overriding passion. You wouldn't spend five
years saying one thing. You would want to say a zillion things
and that was the challenge with this. It's saying more than one
thing so that people can interpret it in many ways. I hope in
like ten years or twenty years, that people won't talk about the
materials anymore, that it will be just things that people use
in art school. And I started to see that.

I was teaching this last quarter at USCS and people were using
all different things for their stuff. They were using rice,
they were using beads and it wasn't like, oh, you're using
beads. It was, this is another art material. I started to use
beads and was so criticized for it that I thought I must be
really doing something right. I must have found an art material
that doesn't look like art, so maybe it's something original.
So that criticism inspired me to say I'm going to just bead the
world.

Val>> Liza Lou's kitchen is on display at the San Jose Museum
of Art through July 4. And that's our program. I'm Val Zavala.
For everyone at Life and Times, thanks for watching. We'll see
you next time.

Life and Times was made possible through the generous support of
the L.K. Whittier Foundation dedicated to improving the quality
of life by supporting innovative endeavors in the fields of
medicine, health, science and education.

Val>> Next time on Life and Times, forget all the promises
about speedy trials. Budget cuts at the courthouse are on the
verge of causing a legal crisis.

>> More cuts to the judiciary after three years of very deep
cuts will now not only hinder, it's really going to be an
absolute fatal blow to the courts.

Val>> That's next time on Life and Times.