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Life & Times Transcript

2/1/07

Val Zavala>> Tonight on Life and Times --

If you remember the Northridge quake, you probably think you've been through a big one, but experts say to think again.

Thomas Jordan>> As scientists, we've always hesitated to kind of emphasize the very largest type of earthquakes we might have. But Katrina taught us that we shouldn't be too shy about that.

Val Zavala>> And then, these films and performers have already won Oscar nominations, but will they get the nod from our critics?

It's all straight ahead on tonight's Life and Times.

Announcer>> Life and Times is made possible through the generous support of the L.K. Whittier Foundation dedicated to improving the quality of life by supporting innovative endeavors in the fields of medicine, health, science and education.

And by a generous grant from Jim and Anne Rothenberg.

Val Zavala>> If you thought the Northridge quake was big, consider this: a hundred fifty years ago, a huge quake hit along the San Andreas fault and, if another one hits again -- and we're overdue -- it will cover an area twenty times that of the Northridge quake. Toni Guinyard talked to some seismologists who are sounding the alarm.

Toni Guinyard>> This is earthquake country. You've heard it time and time again. Now scientists are delivering the message differently.

Thomas Jordan>> "That's the type of motion that we're concerned about for an earthquake that is generated so close to the center of the city."

Toni Guinyard>> And there is reason for us to listen.

Dr. Susan Hough>> For a long time, I think seismologists tended to stand up and sort of sooth fears.

Toni Guinyard>> Dr. Susan Hough is scientist in charge at the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena.

Dr. Susan Hough>> In the past, we've tended to stand up and say, "Well, we don't know. There's no reason to think it might be tomorrow. To have a big earthquake, the odds are that you'll see aftershocks. They'll die down and things will sort of get back to normal." And there's been a departure from that in recent years that we can't be too reassuring because these big quakes are in our future because it's been a hundred fifty years since Fort Tejon.

Toni Guinyard>> Fort Tejon, called the last great earthquake to hit southern California. It happened along the San Andreas fault.

Dr. Susan Hough>> So from here down to here is what I'm talking about with the 1857 quake.

Toni Guinyard>> Scientists have determined large earthquakes, the so-called big ones, happen in cycles, but not like clockwork.

Dr. Susan Hough>> They seem to happen every hundred fifty years on average and, lo and behold, this is the hundred fiftieth anniversary, so that starts to sound scary.

Thomas Jordan>> We really need to make sure that people are aware of the big hammer that can hit us.

Toni Guinyard>> Thomas Jordan is director of the Southern California Earthquake Center.

Thomas Jordan>> We coordinate a program where people come in to southern California to study this place as a natural laboratory. A lot happens in a hundred fifty years and, in particular, this place has gone from a small population to a region with over twenty-three million people. So when that earthquake occurs, we are going to have to deal with some very severe consequences.

Dr. Susan Hough>> Water and power is going to be disrupted, trains, just you name it. So the possibility to really isolate Los Angeles as a community is one of the concerns. It's going to be hard to get in here.

Thomas Jordan>> What we're talking about, we think of the big one as something that's a much bigger earthquake.

Toni Guinyard>> The big one will be much bigger than the deadly Northridge earthquake.

Dr. Susan Hough>> That was scary. The fact that I'm a trained seismologist went out the window at 4:31 in the morning. It's like someone picked up my house and was shaking it back and forth. It was noisy, there were power lines arcing, transformers blowing up. I was thinking about my kids, so that really hits you where you live. And then for people to come along and say, "Well, guess what? That wasn't a big one."

Toni Guinyard>> Now if that doesn't grab your attention, consider this: Dr. Hough says that, when the big one hits -- and it will hit -- it could be the size of twenty Northridge quakes laid end to end.

Dr. Susan Hough>> You know, if you were there at the time, you tend to sort of be incredulous. But the point is that we don't really have a sense of what the bigger picture is like because they are outside our experience.

Toni Guinyard>> But we can look back and learn from earthquakes that will pale in comparison to the big one when it comes. On April 18, 1906, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit San Francisco. The shaking lasted one hundred ten seconds. Two hundred thousand people were left homeless. About three thousand people were killed. Scientists want the public to be prepared.

Dr. Susan Hough>> We don't want to scare people that this is doomsday, you know, that there's this apocalyptic event out there, because that inspires you to take a fatalistic approach.

Thomas Jordan>> As scientists, we've always hesitated to kind of emphasize the very largest type of earthquakes we might have. But Katrina taught us that we shouldn't be too shy about that.

Toni Guinyard>> That's right. Earthquake-prone California can take a lesson from the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Thomas Jordan>> I think we have to realize that, after really catastrophic earthquakes, the guys in white hats aren't going to kind of ride in and rescue us. We're going to have to be self-sufficient for at least those few days after a major event.

Dr. Susan Hough>> So we're really kind of the first line of defense. It's the individual, and that's the message that we're trying to get people to really accept and embrace.

Toni Guinyard>> We are walking on and driving across fault lines every day.

Thomas Jordan>> As a geologist, I can look at Los Angeles and see the faults. They're pretty obvious once you get the hang of it.

Dr. Susan Hough>> You go right by to Gorman. Where the road bends around, you are within the fault zone.

Toni Guinyard>> Photographs from Dr. Hough's book, "Finding Fault in California", shows us that fault lines are right underneath our feet even if we don't know what to look for.

Dr. Susan Hough>> I mean, you expect the Hollywood chasms. It's all very dramatic and they're not like that. They create hills and subtle features to the untrained eye. The corner of Hollywood and Vine, you know, the famous corner in Hollywood, if you stand on that corner and look north, you know, you see the trees and then you see this very sharp hill that sort of starts and then it ends. Well, that's a fault.

The Mission at San Juan Bautista is sitting on the San Andreas fault. The Ritz Carlton Hotel right here in Pasadena is sitting on the Raymond fault. The Mormon Temple is sitting on a fault. You can just go down the line. It's really kind of remarkable how people have gravitated to these features that are dangerous places to be.

Toni Guinyard>> In her latest book, "Richter's Scale: Measure Up an Earthquake, Measure Up a Man", Dr. Hough focuses on Charles Richter, the Caltech seismologist best known by the public as the man who developed the Richter's Scale.

Dr. Susan Hough>> It is not a device. It's not a measuring piece. It's a formula. The word magnitude didn't exist in seismology when Richter introduced it in 1935. What does a magnitude value mean? I say magnitude three and you know what it means, I know it, the public knows. Those are small shocks. That definition was Richter's definition.

Toni Guinyard>> Although when we talk about earthquakes, we no longer talk in terms of its size on the Richter's Scale.

Dr. Susan Hough>> And I think that's not quite right.

Toni Guinyard>> It's clear that scientists agree the big one is coming. They just don't know when, but they want us to be prepared.

Thomas Jordan>> We're going to have to live with earthquakes forever. They're not going to go away and, as our cities develop in each earthquake-prone region, they're going to get hit in irregular intervals by very large earthquakes. That kind of destruction is something we're going to have to deal with.

Toni Guinyard>> I'm Toni Guinyard for Life and Times.

Announcer>> Kcet.org is the place to look for the very latest on Life and Times. You'll find previews of upcoming stories, plus transcripts and audio of past episodes and links to some of our most interesting features. Just go to kcet.org, scroll down the page and click on "Life and Times".

Val Zavala>> The Cuban exile community in Florida is already planning celebrations for the day that the news comes that Fidel Castro has died. But that inevitability will not strike the same chord with Cuban families here in southern California. Hena Cuevas has our story.

Hena Cuevas>> Last August, when news that the president of Cuba was rushed to the hospital hit the United States, this was the scene in southern Florida.

[Film Clip]

Hena Cuevas>> The Cuban exile community took to the streets celebrating what they saw as the beginning of the end of the dictatorship of Fidel Castro. After nearly fifty years of rule, Castro passed temporary control to his brother, Raul. Some in Miami saw this as a sign of political change, but Cubans three thousand miles away on the west coast don't share that sentiment.

After the news of Fidel Castro's illness, the reaction of the Cuban community here in Los Angeles was decidedly different than that of the Cuban community in Miami, a city that has a very large Cuban population. Still, according to the latest census, Los Angeles has about twelve thousand Cubans living in the city and their hopes and expectations for their country are very different than their Miami counterparts.

David Stork>> Anybody to celebrate death in any way is wrong to me. Do I understand the reactions? Yes. Do I think that they over-reacted? Yes.

Hena Cuevas>> David Stork was working as a photographer in Havana in the 1990s. That's when he met his wife, Marta. Marta, who was too shy to talk to us on camera, is a product of the Cuban revolution, so when she heard the news of Castro's illness, it brought on intense and conflicting emotions.

David Stork>> Shock (laughter), shock. I looked at it from one way. I think Marta was in such shock that she really didn't know what to think and I remember that whole first night. She really had no fear of things that were happening because she didn't know what was happening.

Hena Cuevas>> David has seen the dramatic changes in Cuba over the decades. His father was a diplomat and his family lived in Cuba in the 1980s. Things were plentiful then because Cuba was being supported by the Soviet Union. But a decade later, when David returned, it was a very different society.

David Stork>> There was no gas. It was zero option time. The food was limited. It was a struggle. Every day was a struggle. You had to wake up every day and you had to try and get through the day to see how you were going to get fed.

Hena Cuevas>> Marta was working as a radio reporter when they met and fell in love. Despite the hardships in Cuba, leaving her homeland to join David in Los Angeles was a difficult decision.

David Stork>> To leave Cuba, to leave your life in Cuba, to leave your family in Cuba -- she left her mother in Cuba -- is something that I think must have been horrendously difficult for her to do.

Hena Cuevas>> Today Marta is one of the estimated one million Cubans who fled the island over the last fifty years. Because Cubans are considered political refugees, they're granted special immigration rights the moment they touch United States soil. One of the largest migrations happened in 1980 during the Mariel boat lift. More than a hundred twenty-five thousand Cubans were allowed to leave the island on boats.

>> "We're taking whatever people, you know, they give us. We got crazy people, we got prisoners, they say political prisoners, we got criminals. Who knows what kind of people we got here?"

Hena Cuevas>> Among those was sixty-three year old Jose Pedroso who left behind a wife and six children. Jose lives in Los Angeles and owns a security company. Even with free education and health care in Cuba, Jose wanted a better life for his children.

Jose Pedroso>> My kids were growing up and what was I going to offer them? Free schooling and health care and a free funeral when they die? You can't live off that. You have to have other aspirations.

Hena Cuevas>> But once here, he couldn't go back. The United States embargo against Cuba prohibits travel.

Jose Pedroso>> I said goodbye to my wife. I remember it was in the morning. I'll never forget because I was in love with her. I told her, "I'll be back in a few months because what's happening here can't last very long. I'm going to try and get on my feet and bring you over." That was twenty-six years ago. I miscalculated. I didn't think it would go on for so many years.

Hena Cuevas>> Fidel Castro has ruled Cuba since 1959 after overthrowing the corrupt dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista. He quickly established a socialist state that has survived for forty-seven years. In his book, "Cuba After Castro", political analyst Edward Gonzalez says Castro's charisma has given Americans a romanticized view of Cuba.

Edward Gonzalez>> That romantic notion, is that the real Cuba? Cuba has had a totalitarian regime certainly starting in the mid-1960s that has been very controlling of Cuban society.

Hena Cuevas>> Gonzalez says Castro's death will not necessarily mean the end of communism on the island.

Edward Gonzalez>> I think what there's going to be will be a succession, a political succession, and not a political transition to democracy by any means.

Hena Cuevas>> So you think, in a way, the regime is bigger than Fidel Castro himself?

Edward Gonzalez>> I think it's been institutionalized sufficiently that they will be able to succeed Castro.

Hena Cuevas>> But Stork sees Castro's legacy in a different way.

David Stork>> I don't think that Cuba is as horrendous as everybody says. I go back to Cuba and I see improvements. I see people still living well. And the comparisons that I give them all the time is you have to go to Central America to see what problems really are.

Hena Cuevas>> After nearly three decades of paperwork and patience, Jose was able to bring his daughter and her family to Los Angeles. They arrived just two months ago. But for his thirty-eight year old daughter, adjusting to life in the United States hasn't been easy.

Jose Pedroso>> There are people who were born with the system and haven't known anything else, but they're convinced there is something better. Otherwise, they wouldn't have decided to come here.

Hena Cuevas>> Castro is rarely seen in public these days, except for select government-issued photographs. Some speculate is condition is so serious that he probably won't be around much longer. Jose says change will be inevitable, but he wants it to come from the people.

Jose Pedroso>> I want change. Let the people choose their change. Don't let the Americans oppose someone. Let them have the right to choose who they want.

Hena Cuevas>> Gonzalez, for his part, fears any unrests in Cuba will prompt more people to come here.

Edward Gonzalez>> If there is turmoil in Cuba, if there is the failure of the economy to rebound, you're going to have hundreds of thousands of people trying to get to the United States.

[Film Clip]

Hena Cuevas>> So while Cuban exiles in Miami may be ready to celebrate the end of an era, Cuban-Americans here are less certain.

David Stork>> They are the strongest element of Cuban existence, in my opinion, because they all think of Cuba in a romantic way. So you talk about Cubans who left in the fifties, you talk about Cubans who left in 1990 and you talk about Cubans who left now, they all are equally nostalgic about their country in different phases of what it is.

Hena Cuevas>> But one thing is for sure. They all share a longing for a return to prosperity and the opening of doors so families and loved ones can be reunited. I'm Hena Cuevas for Life and Times.

Announcer>> To send a comment or a question to our program, you can reach us by mail at this address:

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Larry Mantle>> Welcome to FilmWeek on Life and Times. I'm Larry Mantle of 89.3 KPCC. This week, we're doing things just a little different. With the recently announced Academy Award nominations, we're asking our two critics today to weigh in on their choices for three of the top categories. I'm joined this week by film editors and critics, Andy Klein of City Beat, and from the L.A. Weekly, Scott Foundas. Scott, of the five Best Actress nominees, who's your pick?

Scott Foundas>> Well, my pick is Helen Mirren in "The Queen".

[Film Clip]

Scott Foundas>> You know, a lot of actors get nominated for Oscars for playing real-life figures, but I think the art of Helen Mirren's performance is that she brings us close to somebody who we're so accustomed to seeing at a distance removed, almost like a waxen museum figure. Queen Elizabeth behind velvet ropes and in processionals and whatnot. She shows us the humanity of this woman.

It's a wonderfully well-rounded performance full of humor and pathos and, you know, it's neither an apology for the actions of Queen Elizabeth in the wake of Diana's death nor a condemnation of what she did. It's really the center of the film that, I think, works on every level.

Larry Mantle>> Your pick, Andy, for Best Actress?

Andy Klein>> I'm going to be very boring here because, of course, I agree with Scott about Helen Mirren and pretty much every awards group this year has agreed on this. She's just terrific here. It really does capture something that we've never seen, but it's somehow believable. Plus, as well, actor James Cromwell helps her by nailing Prince Phillip.

But it's a shame on some level for other actresses. I mean, Meryl Streep is perfect in "The Devil Wears Prada", but somehow one comes away a little less impressed because of the role. It's the nature of the role that really gives somebody a chance to shine. This is just an amazingly on-the-mark performance and, in fact, an inspired performance.

Larry Mantle>> Best Actor category. Scott, your pick?

Scott Foundas>> My pick is Peter O'Toole in "Venus".

[Film Clip]

Scott Foundas>> You know, Peter O'Toole has been nominated for Oscars seven times and he's never won. This is really a crowning achievement in his career. It's the kind of role that actors sometimes get late in life, like Robert Ryan in the film version of "The Ice Man Cometh", where they really seem to be playing very close to themselves with a sort of air of mortality and resignation to the role. That's what I think makes it so cruel, so touching, in this performance. You know, playing an old acting legend and the guy who realizes he doesn't have much more time left. Then into his life comes this young woman.

The film so delicately navigates what could have been an awkward subject in the sort of half romance between a much older man and a much younger woman. What's great about the film and what's great about O'Toole's performance is that it always lets you know and he always lets you know exactly what the stakes are in this relationship. You know, the character that he's playing is never bamboozled by this young girl. He always knows what his position is and that sort of just adds to the melancholy of everything.

Larry Mantle>> Andy, your pick for Best Actor?

Andy Klein>> I'm really close to Scott on this. I want to disagree with him, but the fact is that I was very close to picking Peter O'Toole in part because, if I throw in the career and the number of times he's been robbed of Oscars, he wins hands down. In terms of justice performance, which is really how we should judge it, I gave a slight edge to Forest Whitaker.

[Film Clip]

Andy Klein>> Forest Whitaker, you know, has got this role here that allows him to be flamboyant. It allows a lot more acting with a capital "A" and he takes full advantage of it. I mean, his Idi Amin, you get a sense both of, you know, a flamboyant monster and some sort of humanity. He's just a kind of larger than life figure that he pulls off perfectly. I have to say that, when you take his career into account, he was ripped off for "Bird", which he didn't get nominated for.

Larry Mantle>> Finally, the category of Best Picture. Scott Foundas, your choice?

Scott Foundas>> My choice is Clint Eastwood's "Letters from Iwo Jima".

[Film Clip]

Scott Foundas>> You know, what I think was generally a very good year for movies, I'm not sure if there was any achievement more impressive than the two films about the battle of Iwo Jima made by Clint Eastwood. This one, "Letters from Iwo Jima", was the second part of the project, a film in Japanese with an entirely Japanese cast.

I think what's so meaningful about this film and this moment in our history is that what Eastwood has to say about war and the young men who go off to fight in wars are often not really even understanding the conflict that they're being drafted into. This isn't a movie just about World War II or this one battle. It really has a universal resonance. It's timeless and it's very, very much about many things that are going on in the world right now as we speak.

Larry Mantle>> Andy, your pick for Best Picture?

Andy Klein>> I thought "Letters from Iwo Jima" was terrific, but I have to go with "The Departed".

[Film Clip]

Andy Klein>> And I'm probably going to violate everything I said when we were talking about the best actor here (laughter) because the truth is that Clint Eastwood has gotten Oscars coming out the wazoo and Martin Scorsese really is so insanely overdue and it's true that it's not his best film. I mean, I would rather he'd gotten it for "Goodfellas" or "Mean Streets", which wasn't even in the running.

But I think this is a very strong film on its own. You have some terrific performances in there. Jack Nicholson, Alec Baldwin, Matt Damon, obviously another DiCaprio. But I thought this was the perfect blend of Scorsese's strong points with actually a kind of commercial hook that was sellable. I was totally absorbed in it.

Larry Mantle>> That's it for another FilmWeek on Life and Times. I'm Larry Mantle of 89.3 KPCC joined by critics and film editors, Scott Foundas of the L.A. Weekly and Andy Klein of City Beat. Please join us again next week for the next FilmWeek on Life and Times.

Val Zavala>> KPCC public radio broadcasts an hour version of Filmweek Friday mornings at eleven. And that's our program. I'm Val Zavala. For everyone at Life and Times, thanks for watching. We'll see you next time.

Announcer>> Life and Times was made possible through the generous support of the L.K. Whittier Foundation dedicated to improving the quality of life by supporting innovative endeavors in the fields of medicine, health, science and education.

And by a generous grant from Jim and Anne Rothenberg.

Sponsored in part by:


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