With 17 Props on the Ballot Will Voters Just Say No?
By Paul Brennan
This articleoriginally appeared on Ballotpedia.
The ballots for this year’s general election in California will be long. In July, California Secretary of State Alex Padilla announced that 17 statewide propositions will appear on the ballot for the November election.[1] That’s the highest number of statewide ballot propositions since the 2000 primary election, when voters were faced with 20 statewide propositions.
According to University of California, Riverside Professor Shaun Bowler, some people believe that the large number of propositions may increase the chances of those propositions being rejected by voters.
“The conventional wisdom is the more propositions you have, the more ‘no’ voting you get because people say, ‘I don't want to take the time to figure this out’,’’ Shaun Bowler, a political scientist who studies voting behavior, told The Mercury News.
Is there evidence that the conventional wisdom may be correct? Is there even a simple correlation between the number of statewide propositions on the ballot and the percentage of those propositions rejected by California voters?
To determine if a simple correlation exists in California, Verbatim examined the results of the 93 elections between 1912 and 2014 in which there were statewide propositions on the ballot.
The results show a two percentage point increase in the proportion of failed proposals when the ballot has more than 13 propositions—the average number of propositions per election during the period. In elections with 13 or fewer statewide propositions, voters rejected 42 percent of propositions. In elections with more than 13 statewide propositions, the average proportion of rejected proposals was 44 percent.
There are many variables beside ballot-length that could affect a voter’s decision on propositions, including judgments made about individual propositions prior to the election. A study of the effect of ballot position on the approval rate of propositions in California from 1960 to 2010 found the approval rate closely corresponded to the results of the final opinion polls conducted on those proposition before the election.[2]
California ballot propositions, 1912-2014
In 1911, California voters approved 23 propositions the state legislature had placed on the election ballot. Among them was the California Initiative and Referendum Proposition, which created a process by which California citizens can place initiatives and referendums on the ballot.
Since 1912, Californians have been able to vote on the following types of propositions:
Between 1912 and 2014, there were 93 elections that had statewide propositions on the ballot. In those elections, voters decided a total of 1,203 propositions, rejecting 43 percent of them.
Conclusion
This November, California voters will be voting on 17 statewide propositions, the largest number on the ballot since 2000. According to political scientist Shaun Bowler, “The conventional wisdom is the more propositions you have, the more ‘no’ voting you get because people say, ‘I don't want to take the time to figure this out’.” Verbatim examined the results of statewide propositions on the ballot between 1912 and 2014 to determine if there is a simple correlation between the number of propositions on the ballot and the proportion of propositions that are rejected by voters. We found that in elections with more than 13 propositions, the average number of propositions on the ballot per election during the period, voters rejected 44 percent of propositions. In elections with 13 or fewer statewide propositions on the ballot, 42 percent were rejected.
View the original articlefor more on the author's sources and to view election results for California ballot propositions from 1912-2014.
Paul Brennan is a staff writer for Verbatim, Ballotpedia's fact-checking desk. Before joining Ballotpedia in 2016, Paul wrote for numerous publications from New Orleans to Los Angeles.
