Web 2.0 to App 1.0
"There is no difference between Time and any of the three dimensions of Space except that our consciousness moves along it." From the Time Machine by H.G. Wells
Before the internet, change was measured in increments that spanned years, now it is measured in versions.
I attended the Los Angeles SF AppShow last Thursday evening. TheSF AppShow showcases Apps* and their developers in a relaxed setting, you get appetizers and drinks, which brings a social and networking aspect to the evening.
Deja Vu 2.0
As I sat there waiting for the first presenter, I had a déjà vu moment. I was flashed back to the Beverly Hilton at a conference in 2001. The panel I was waiting to hear was going to speak about what Web 2.0 was going to look like. As I looked around the room, everyone's badges had a name and a website attached. If you didn't have a website, you were rudderless and not really someone you needed to hand a card to. Everyone had the "next big thing". Flash forward. It was a redo, only difference was that the web was yesterday's news.
A Chicken in every pot and a car in every garage - Herbert Hoover 1928
Herbert Hoover's presidential campaign slogan spoke about the quality of life and prosperity he would offer if he was elected. Now Steve Jobs speaks to us along similar lines by selling us an iPhone or iPad and the apps to improve the quality of our lives off and online. And by attaching prosperity to each application for both the user and creator, he has given birth to an industry with no end in sight.
Revealing the Rabbit in the Hat
I love watching tech presentations, it is a magic show; I am always ready with the "ooohhh" at the reveal. "How did they do that?" is not as important as "Do I need it?".
Each presenter had an app that would either entertain or make my life easier. One app stood out, Moe's Notes. Moe's Notes is a tool to record text, audio, photos, videos and allows you to tag each note for future searches. I saw the potential not only for journalists, but also for law enforcement. The other presentations ran from games to marketing to utilities, all filling a niche rather than trying to blanket the entire human population.
Up in the Clouds
We created the Machine, to do our will, but we cannot make it do our will now. It has robbed us of the sense of space and of the sense of touch, it has blurred every human relation and narrowed down love to a carnal act, it has paralysed our bodies and our wills, and now it compels us to worship it. - The Machine Stops by E.M. Foster
I believe that the web as we know it now will play a lesser role in our future. Smartphones are made for Apps, not the web. And as we move forward, we will be less tethered to our desktop computers and laptops and will be interacting and working on our mobile and tablet devices. We will be untethered to the earth, like a cloud - and no longer be concerned as to where we are located physically, only if we can be contacted virtually. However as we free ourselves further of the ground beneath us, the more we chain ourselves to the machine.
I asked Seth Socolow, a partner in the SF App Studio this question:
Do you believe that the internet as we know it now will be obsolete in 5 years because of Apps?
When was the last time you bought a piece of shrink-wrapped software for your Mac or PC? Best Buy and CompUSA (which is no longer around) used to dedicate entire aisles to computer software. Today there is a small section of software in Best Buy. Personally, I pay for subscriptions for web based applications like Highrise (highrisehq.com) and Constant Contact. I use free tools like Mint.com on the web where previously I used Quicken on my desktop. Google Docs provides phenomenal free web based tools, such as their spreadsheet, that allow for easy collaboration with other users.
Today in mobile there is a tension between app developers, carriers, and hardware manufacturers. Hardware manufacturers and carriers (not consumers) who are their customers want to differentiate their phones by the number and types of apps available for them. Developers have to write apps in completely different software languages for each platform like iPhone, Android, and Blackberry. Developers would much rather write an app once and have it work across all phones and hardware manufacturers are trying to keep things closed and proprietary. If hardware manufacturers implemented standards for how their phones interact with the web more apps for mobile phones could run in the cloud the way they do for computers today. There is no question in my mind that there is a limited shelf life for writing and selling compiled apps that run locally on mobile phones. Eventually most mobile apps will run from the cloud, but this may be more like 10 than 5 years in the future, since hardware manufacturers and carriers are so entrenched and hold power over developers in the form of the billing relationship (either through the monthly carrier bill or iTunes account) with the app consumers.
Interested in more? Take a look at these SF App Presenters:
Glee
Mobile Ad Network Jumptap discusses the bleeding edge of in-app advertising
Getjar: app store, the second largest app store (second only to the Apple App Store) with over 1 billion downloads to date.
* Milestone:
The iTunes App Store opened on July 10, 2008 with 500 applications, as of June 7, 2010, there are at least 225,000 third-party applications available from the App Store, with over 5 billion total downloads.
A thank you to Dennis Miser for pointing me to E.M.Foster's The Machine Stops
Image: Ophelia Chong/ The Future
